Written by 
They’re still counting votes in 27 uncalled House races, but even Democrats admit that Republicans are on track to keep their majority in 2025.
Why it matters: House Democrats are the last shot to prevent a GOP trifecta in D.C. next year. Republicans have retaken the Senate majority, and President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20.
- [The chart above is organized over how the races were expected to go ahead of Election Day. Republicans lead in two seats that were expected to go to Democrats, while Democrats lead in zero races expected to go red.]
State of play: Democrats are looking to five Republican-held seats in California and two in Arizona — as well as GOP incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa who’s likely headed for a recount — as their last hope of obtaining the chamber.
- Republicans currently lead in all those seats, and Democrats also need to protect remaining vulnerable seats in California, Colorado and elsewhere.
- House Democrats’ optimism is dwindling, with some now predicting their best case scenario is falling just one seat short of the House majority.
Zoom in: Both parties are looking to California as the final House battleground, especially if Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) hold on.
- Reps. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Josh Harder (D-Calif.) all lead by surprisingly narrow margins, though Republicans concede those are long-shots and Democrats feel confident about all three.
- Both parties say the race between Republican Scott Baugh and Democrat Dave Min for retiring Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) seat could go either way.
- Republicans believe they have a shot at protecting all five of their vulnerable incumbents in California, though Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Calif.) and Mike Garcia’s (R-Calif.) races both appear to be particular nail-biters.
What they’re saying: Duarte told Axios he is “in a better position now” than in 2022 against Democratic opponent Adam Gray, when he squeaked out a win by less than half a percentage point.
- The California races were discussed on a Democratic leadership call on Wednesday, with one senior House Democrat coming out of the call predicting “a few seats in [California] … will move our way.”