Congressional election results: Control of Congress rests on a few Senate, House seats

Republicans flipped Democratic Senate seats in Ohio and West Virginia, putting them on track to secure a majority in the chamber.

Why it matters: Barring an upset, the GOP is now poised to control at least 51 Senate seats, enough for a majority regardless of who controls the White House.

Follow Axios’ live coverage featuring reporting and analysis from across the country.

The latest: Republican challenger Bernie Moreno ousted Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, resolving the most expensive congressional race of the 2024 cycle.

• Republicans, as expected, also easily flipped the seat long held by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) with a win by Gov. Jim Justice.
• The Montana Senate race is viewed as the others most likely to flip; Like Ohio, it features a vulnerable incumbent (Jon Tester) in a red state.
• Democrats scored an important win in Maryland, where Angela Alsobrooks defeated Republican former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan to keep that Senate seat in their column.

Zoom in: Senate Democrats remain on defense in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.

• Republicans have fewer vulnerable seats, although a race that tightened late in Nebraska remains uncalled.

In the House, Republicans entered Election Day with a 5-seat majority, and Democrats have so far flipped just one seat:

• State Sen. John Mannion defeated freshman Rep. Rep. Brandon Williams in a central New York district.
• Democrats are looking to flip several more seats in New York, while Republicans feel good about their chances in several key Michigan and Pennsylvania districts.
• Strategists in both parties and independent analysts acknowledge that neither party is likely to walk away with a majority that’s larger than single digits.

What to watch: California is expected to hold the keys to the kingdom in the House. The West Coast state — notorious for being slow to tally all its votes —contains more than half a dozen competitive districts, including five seats held by Republicans that were rated “toss-up” by Cook Political Report.

• Both parties are also closely watching Virginia, where polls closed at 7pm ET.
• Republicans believe a good result in Virginia’s open 7th District would portend a good night for their party. Democrats were doing the same in the state’s 2nd District.

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