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By most accounts, this presidential election will be close. We don’t have the kinds of landslide elections we had in 1936, 1972, or 1984. Instead, we have elections that come down to a handful of swing states and slivers of the electorate within those states.
The landmark book Insecure Majorities by my colleague, Princeton University political scientist Frances Lee, explores this instability. She explains that before 1994, congressional majorities were quite stable: Democrats had controlled the House since 1954 and the Senate for most of the time (aside from 1981 to 1987). Since then, however, we have entered an era in which control flips back and forth, and the size of these majorities has shrunk.
By most accounts, this presidential election will be close. We don’t have the kinds of landslide elections we had in 1936, 1972, or 1984. Instead, we have elections that come down to a handful of swing states and slivers of the electorate within those states.
The landmark book Insecure Majorities by my colleague, Princeton University political scientist Frances Lee, explores this instability. She explains that before 1994, congressional majorities were quite stable: Democrats had controlled the House since 1954 and the Senate for most of the time (aside from 1981 to 1987). Since then, however, we have entered an era in which control flips back and forth, and the size of these majorities has shrunk.
When Democrats had large and stable majorities, they could afford to make compromises, and Republicans had to reach across the aisle if they wanted any influence. Once that ended, the incentives for partisanship intensified. The potential cost of compromise increased as concessions could flip seats in the next election. Partisan battles became endless.
Presidential campaigns are now driven by similar dynamics. As fault lines have calcified, it has become increasingly difficult to know which way the electoral winds will blow. Candidates must slug it out over very small parts of the electorate, and the stakes of each fight have become greater. The 2000 election ushered in this era, when the parties entered a bare-knuckles battle over the vote count in Florida.
Although the colors of some of the states have changed, including Florida, we have been living in the shadow of that contentious election ever since.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.