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On Sunday, an out-of-sorts Manchester City travel to Premier League leaders Liverpool. Here, we analyse five aspects of the game that could be key to its outcome.
On Sunday afternoon at Anfield, Arne Slot’s runaway Premier League leaders host Manchester City, who are at what must be their lowest ebb under Pep Guardiola.
Man City very nearly ended their five-game losing streak with a win over Feyenoord in midweek, but a capitulation as catastrophic as it was uncharacteristic saw them throw away a three-goal lead in the final 15 minutes to draw 3-3. It was the first time in over 35 years that City have failed to win a game after holding a three-goal lead, and after the run of results they have just had, it felt hugely significant.
There has never been a better time to face this City side. Liverpool, already eight points clear of the champions, have more reason to be confident going into a game against City than they have in any other recent meeting.
But they will also go into this top-of-the-table meeting wary of a backlash. It would be foolish to underestimate City, even on a six-game winless run that nobody could have seen coming a month ago.
There are justifiable reasons to predict just about any result on Sunday, in what will be Slot’s first meeting with Guardiola. Here, we look at five key factors that could decide the game’s outcome.
Liverpool Counters and City’s Soft Middle
Without Rodri in the centre of the park, City have been too easy to play through. That isn’t entirely down to the absence of the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, but it is a big part of the problem.
In Guardiola’s entire reign, City have never looked so porous. Their problems at the back of late have been historically bad. After the Feyenoord disaster, they have conceded at least two goals in six successive games in all competitions for the first time since May 1963.
As a team that dominates possession as much as they do, counter-attacks are one of the few ways that opponents ever really have a chance against them. In Rodri’s absence, opposition counters have become a real problem.
In the 10 Premier League matches that Rodri hasn’t appeared in this season, Manchester City have given up 17 shots following a fast-break situation. In comparison, they have allowed opponents just seven shots from fast breaks in their last 10 matches with Rodri, and only one in their last eight.
In Premier League games only, just three teams (West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace) have allowed their opponents more chances from such situations this season than City (14). Only Aston Villa and Brighton (four each) have conceded more goals from opposition counter-attacks this season than City (three).
City have conceded 4.1 xG from shots following a fast break this season, which is already more than they did in the whole of 2023-24 (3.6), and suggests they are perhaps fortunate to have only let in three goals on the break.
It was a particular problem in their mauling at the hands of Tottenham last weekend, when Spurs scythed through City on the break time and again. And there will be no let-up on that front on Sunday.
Liverpool have had more shots from fast breaks (20) than any other team in the Premier League this season, and rank second to Spurs (nine) for goals from such situations (five). City will need to find a way to break up those counter-attacks at Anfield.
City’s Right Flank vs Liverpool’s Weak Left?
Liverpool don’t appear to have too many weaknesses at the moment. They have let in only eight goals in 12 league games this season. They’ve lost only once all season, and that was 15 games ago. The Reds have won 17 of their 19 games under Slot.
But if you were looking for a weakness to highlight (that *might* be what we’re doing here), there could be some hope for City down Liverpool’s left.
Left-back Andy Robertson hasn’t been quite the assured and reassuring presence we have come to know him to be over the years. There was a period earlier in the season when Kostas Tsimikas was being selected ahead of the Scot, and he has given away a penalty in both of Liverpool’s last two games. He doesn’t concede many fouls, but he has made two key errors in the space of the last week.
Neither of them have ended up costing his side anything – they came from behind to beat Southampton last weekend and Kylian Mbappé missed from the spot in the Champions League in midweek – but they might not be afforded such a luxury against City, even in their current state.
Nobody at City can truly say they have been performing well of late, but Savinho has provided a few – albeit infrequent – bright sparks, and certainly has the ability to cause Robertson a few headaches.
Of players to play 500+ minutes in the Premier League this season, he leads the way for chances created from open play (2.7 per 90), is second for expected assists (0.44 per 90), and is third for successful dribbles (3.4 per 90). He was ineffective on the left flank against Spurs last week and should be back on the right this weekend. He could provide some hope for the visitors.
The Bigger the Chance, the Harder they Fall
City have been a lot leakier than usual at the back this season, and it’s not just the quantity of chances they are giving up, it’s the quality of them as well.
For instance, only Ipswich Town (49), Southampton (44), Leicester City (44) and Crystal Palace (38) have faced more big chances in the Premier League this season than City (37). A ‘big chance’ is defined by Opta as a chance from which the attacking player would usually be expected to score.
However, since Rodri’s injury against Arsenal on 22 September, City have faced the most big chances in the Premier League (30 in 7 games).
City have faced the fewest shots in the Premier League in that time (61) but have allowed their opponents the seventh-highest xG total (12.2) and have conceded the sixth-most goals (12). On average, each shot City have faced has been worth 0.20 xG, which is comfortably the highest in the Premier League in that time (ahead of Manchester United’s 0.15 xG).
As you can see below, Man City’s six-game rolling average non-penalty xG difference has been positive for Guardiola’s entire reign, proving that they consistently create better chances than they concede. However, it’s closer than ever before to being negative; their rolling six-game average non-pen xG against is at its highest under the Spaniard, and is close to catching up their xG for.
Even more concerning for the City boss will be this next graphic, which looks at the quality of non-penalty chances each team concedes and the rate at which they concede goals. City stand out for all the wrong reasons.
They are facing higher-quality non-penalty shots than anyone else and those shots are being converted more consistently than everyone else’s shots faced, too. Liverpool are at the opposite end of the scale.
City’s issues could be a particular problem against a Liverpool side who have scored the second most goals in the Premier League this season (24) and have recorded the third-highest xG (23.6). Arne Slot’s men have also had the joint-second highest xG per shot in the league (0.13), behind only Brentford (0.15).
With City conceding good chances and Liverpool creating them, don’t be surprised to see a few close-range efforts for the hosts on Sunday.
City have conceded a deeply concerning 13 goals in their last four games in all competitions, but they could be helped if a key player returns…
Key Players and Potential Absences
The last time Rúben Dias played for Man City in the league was also the last time they won a game (1-0 versus Southampton on 26 October).
Correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but Guardiola will be hoping that is the case if the Portuguese centre-back is fit to take to the pitch at Anfield.
Dias was an unused substitute in City’s 3-3 draw with Feyenoord on Tuesday, suggesting he may be nearing a return, which would be a huge boost to the champions.
In the 126 Premier League games in which he has featured since arriving in September 2020, City have won 76.2%, earning 2.4 points per game and conceding 0.8 goals per game. In 36 league games without him, they have won 61.1%, earned 2.0 points per game, and conceded 1.1 goals per game.
Having Dias available should bring a lot more calm and organisation to the champions’ backline, which is needed more than ever right now.
On the other hand, Liverpool could be without a key defender of their own after Ibrahima Konaté went off after being clattered by Endrick in the final seconds of their 2-0 win over Real Madrid on Wednesday. The big centre-back, who recently captained France in their Nations League win over Italy, has been in imperious form this season as part of Slot’s efficient defence, winning an impressive 71.6% of his duels and 82.4% of his aerial duels.
One player who is almost certain to feature for Liverpool is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian’s long-term future might be up in the air, but there is no questioning his form or his continued value to the Reds.
As well as having the most goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season (16), Salah’s goal involvements have been worth a league-high 17 points to Liverpool this term.
He also has a fantastic record against City, scoring seven goals and adding four assists in 14 Premier League appearances for Liverpool.
Erling Haaland, on the other hand, has a relatively poor record against Liverpool, scoring just one goal in three games – that goal coming at the Etihad Stadium in last season’s 1-1 draw. He does have a goal to his name at Anfield, but that was scored for Salzburg in the Champions League in October 2019.
Someone with a better scoring record at Anfield is Ilkay Gündogan, who has found the net three times at Liverpool’s home, the joint-most anyone has managed for Man City at Anfield (Nicolas Anelka also three).
Home Advantage
Liverpool vs Man City is a fixture that tends to favour the hosts. The away side has won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between the teams – the lowest percentage of any fixture to be played more than 30 times in the competition’s history (11%).
Anfield has been a particularly tough place for City to go. They have won just one of their last 21 Premier League games at Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021 – when fans weren’t allowed in stadiums due to the pandemic. They’ve not won at Anfield with fans in attendance since May 2003 (2-1).
This weekend, the fans will surely create an atmosphere that makes City’s task even more difficult. A City side lacking in their usual confidence and verve might well struggle in such an environment.
Liverpool players past and present have spoken about the impact the supporters have at Anfield, and the crowd could play an even bigger role than usual on Sunday.
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