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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s looming return to office is causing sleepless nights in Europe. Diplomats expect Trump 2.0 will cause more headaches because the world is less stable today than it was in 2017.
Chief among their fears is the growing partnership between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. “Trump is getting one global theater. And everything our adversaries are doing right now seems connected,” a Western security official said, on the condition of anonymity.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s looming return to office is causing sleepless nights in Europe. Diplomats expect Trump 2.0 will cause more headaches because the world is less stable today than it was in 2017.
Chief among their fears is the growing partnership between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. “Trump is getting one global theater. And everything our adversaries are doing right now seems connected,” a Western security official said, on the condition of anonymity.
It’s unclear if Trump—not shy about his domestic agenda coming first—understands exactly what the prospect of an alliance between four nuclear powers whose leaders hate the United States means.
“These are four countries who are already working together against American interests,” said Brett Bruen, former White House global engagement director. “North Korea is helping Russia invade Ukraine. Iran’s proxies are attacking ships in the Red Sea. China is buying Iranian oil. It all fits and could get worse if Trump becomes more isolationist.”
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s decision to aid Russia by sending troops to Ukraine is the most surprising and ostentatious example of how the axis of autocracies might continue to grow.
The benefits to the Kremlin are obvious: Russia has suffered heavy losses since the start of the war, and North Korea is willing to help plug that gap by sending its own men to near-certain death.
What’s in it for Pyongyang is less clear. “There is significant risk of North Korean soldiers defecting as soon as they arrive in Ukraine—something the South Koreans are preparing for,” said John Everard, the former U.K. ambassador to North Korea. “Defections from his elite special forces would embarrass Kim. It would also be a major embarrassment if his troops turn out to be useless. It could damage his reputation as a man to be truly feared.”
However, Everard also said that Kim needs a backup plan. “North Korea has been almost solely reliant on China for a long time, and China has been signaling its displeasure at Kim’s new relationship with Russia,” Everard said. “Meanwhile, we don’t know what Kim is getting in return for sending troops to Russia. Perhaps he wants help developing new nuclear weapons and missile technology, or perhaps he has been forced to agree to send troops because, now that his stockpiles are exhausted, he can no longer meet Russian demands for munitions.”
NATO officials fear a global escalation of the European conflict. If North Korea continues to support Russia, does South Korea support Ukraine by sending missiles? Might Ukraine strike North Korean targets? And if it did, would North Korea demand China makes good on treaty commitments to protect North Korea? While alliance sources say that is “close to China’s worst nightmare,” it’s being seriously considered.
Anything that eases Russia’s burden in Ukraine gives Russian President Vladimir Putin room for his long-term objective: weakening the West and expanding Russian influence. Europe will continue as his primary target.
“The Kremlin and its proxies have attempted to influence multiple elections in Europe with the specific aim of installing pro-Russian politicians or governments across the continent,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.
Whether it’s claims that the United States sees Europe as a colony via NATO or that Ukrainian neo-Nazis are offering human sacrifices to pagan gods, there are thousands of examples of Kremlin proxies seeking to coerce Europeans into hating Putin’s enemies. This type of activity often peaks during elections and has helped Kremlin stooges, such as Irakli Kobakhidze in Georgia, win elections or grow in strength across Europe.
Obviously, anti-West and anti-NATO sentiment is a danger in Europe itself, but it also has consequences for Americans. “The United States benefits when Europe’s economy thrives. It benefits from a strong Europe standing up for U.S. interests further afield, especially in Asia. There is no benefit to the United States if Europe becomes a Putin playground,” Giles said.
For Iran, the new axis of autocracies provides answers to some existential questions. Bluntly, Iran needs allies, and its relations with the other three are largely transactional.
“Iran plays different roles for each of these actors: To Russia, it’s a military partner and potential thorn in the side of the United States. To China, Iran is key to energy security and specifically the security of oil shipments from the Gulf,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, a website that publishes analysis on the Middle East.
Iran, a country with multiple regional enemies—chiefly Israel—might seek increased military support later. This could be of concern to the United States if the region becomes less stable in the coming years. “The main threat that Iran could potentially pose for the United States is in the region, with American military bases and other facilities potentially at risk in the event of an all-out confrontation,” Ali Shabani said.
All the potential chaos the other three can cause would suit China well, especially if Trump whacks Beijing with steep tariffs once in office.
One European diplomat explained that a common fear among their peers is that Trump doesn’t fully grasp how many moving parts there are nor how they interact with each other. There is legitimate concern, for example, that Trump will cut a deal on Ukraine and pull back from NATO. Doing so would expose European security and leave the continent vulnerable to Russia. Trump also wants to impose tariffs on European exporters.
“You cannot withdraw support for Europe’s security, hit their economies, then expect their companies to stop selling semiconductors to China or consumers to not buy cheaper Chinese goods, which means what happens in Europe now could have consequences for Taiwan, which would have consequences for allies in the Indo-Pacific. It’s all connected,” the diplomat said.
Fears that Trump doesn’t take global affairs seriously are hardly new. But what might be different in his second term is how much, or how little, attention he pays to the rest of the world.
“The first time around, people were worried he would be looking for reasons to hit the red button,” Bruen said. “I think this time, it’s more concerning that he will turn a blind eye to the rest of the world and see the behavior of people like Putin and [Chinese President Xi Jinping] as not being America’s problem.”
Trump might want to focus on a purely domestic agenda, as is his right. But enemies are looking at a potential void right now and seeing an opportunity to reach a shared objective: to take a major bite out of Washington’s global influence and swallow it up themselves.