College Football Week 12 best upset picks: BYU on upset alert vs. Kansas?

Per FOX Sports college football betting expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica, the line in this game is historically unprecedented (details below).

Since 1978, there have been 66 instances of a team 9-0 or better facing a team with a losing record at home. Every single one of those was a double-digit favorite – until this week when 9-0 BYU is currently a 2.5-point favorite at home over 3-6 Kansas…

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 14, 2024

Part of the reason for the surprising line for this game is that Kansas is not your typical 3-6 football team. Led by dual-threat veteran QB Jalon Daniels and talented senior RB Devin Neal, the Jayhawks have been in just about every game this year (their six losses were decided by a total of 30 points), but turnovers have been killer for Lance Leipold’s team.

Daniels has thrown nine picks this season, but just one in the last four weeks. Related: the Jayhawks are 2-2 in that stretch, with wins over Houston and Iowa State and near-upsets of Arizona State and instate rival K-State.

The Kansas offense, which runs for 214 yards per game, is a bad matchup for a BYU defense that is allowing 146 rushing yards per game and was gashed by Oklahoma State (37 carries for 269 yards) and UFC (29 carries for 181 yards) in recent weeks.

Give us the Jayhawks, who won nine games a year ago but have nothing to lose this late in a lost season, to take down a BYU team that has needed last-second heroics to get to 9-0 (the Cougars have won three games this year by a field goal or less).

Kansas moneyline (+115): 1 unit

Read more of Newsweek’s latest sports betting content

Florida +3.5 (-110) bet365

LSU vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

The case for Florida (4-5, 2-4 SEC) covering vs. LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC) is all about dynamic true freshman QB DJ Lagway. The former five-star recruit took over under center during his team’s loss to Tennessee after an injury prematurely ended Graham Mertz’s season.

Lagway’s big arm and running ability were huge in the Gators’ 48-20 win over Kentucky on October 19, and he threw a 43-yard TD pass against Georgia to help UF take a lead at halftime. But he left that game early after a hamstring injury, and the Florida offense was not the same down the stretch in an eventual 34-20 loss, and the Gators are coming off a 49-17 drubbing against Texas with Lagway on the sideline last Saturday.

He’s back today, though, and he has an outstanding matchup against an LSU D that has not been able to stop running quarterbacks the last few weeks. Even if Lagway is less than 100 percent in the ground game due to his hamstring issue, he should be able to create issues for the Tigers, whose defense was recently shredded on the ground by both Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed (62 yards and 3 TDs on nine carries vs. LSU) and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (12 carries, 185 yards, 4 TDs vs. LSU).

The home crowd at The Swamp, along with the spark Lagway should provide, is enough to convince us the Gators will keep this one close, if not pull off the upset.

• Florida +3.5 (-110): 1 unit

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.