Written by 
In our Week 11 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
NFL Week 11 Start ’Em
The Yays are our model’s fantasy players projected to overperform expert consensus:
Russell Wilson, QB (PIT) vs BAL (ECR: 10, Our Rank: QB6, Projected Points: 18.59)
There are only two quarterbacks who have started at least three games this season and not lost a game. One is obviously Patrick Mahomes. The other is Russell Wilson.
Since becoming the starter in Pittsburgh in Week 7, no QB has a higher yards per completion mark than Wilson. With George Pickens and now Mike Williams on the outside, this offense is centered around the thing Wilson does best – throw the deep ball. Related, the Steelers have their first, third and fourth highest scoring games of the season since Wilson took over.
And that will likely continue this week against a Ravens defense that is last in the NFL in both passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed. Wilson is a solid QB1 in this critical AFC North showdown.
Alvin Kamara, RB (NO) vs CLE (ECR: 10, Our Rank: RB1, PP: 24.60)
In the four years we’ve been writing this article, this might be close to the largest discrepancy between the industry and our model’s No. 1 overall player.
Chances are, the industry is slightly sour on Kamara’s prospects this week due to a mediocre quarterback and a matchup against a Cleveland Browns defense with a lot of talent, led by the defending defensive player of the year in Myles Garrett. But allow our model to present a different case.
Against a solid pass rush, a quarterback’s best friend is the run game. And if it isn’t that, a running back who is solid in the passing game might be the next best thing. Kamara is fourth in the NFL in total rushing attempts to go along with being first among running backs in targets per game, receptions per game and receiving yards per game.
That consistent volume is why the model is projecting Kamara for almost 30 touches this week. Combined with his talent, he has all sorts of RB1 potential this week.
Jauan Jennings, WR (SF) vs SEA (ECR: 26, Our Rank: WR7, PP: 15.38)
Our most frequent member of the positive section of Yays and Nays this season, Jennings returned from a two-week injury last week and did what he’s done all season: produced at an extremely high clip.
In the three games that Jennings has started this season, he has averaged seven receptions and 119 receiving yards per game. That includes last week, when he was one of only three wide receivers to finish as a top 15 player without a touchdown.
Over those same three games, Jennings had six receptions of at least 25 yards, showcasing his big-play ability within this Brock Purdy-led San Francisco 49ers offense. Jennings this week is 24th in projected receptions among wide receivers, but he’s third in projected receiving yards. He is a top-10 option this week at the wide receiver position.
Quentin Johnston, WR (LAC) vs CIN (ECR: 38, Our Rank: WR23, PP: 13.06)
What an absolute two-year roller coaster it’s been for Johnston. For fantasy managers, it’s probably been the opposite. Since, let’s call it Week 4 of last season, has anyone in your league played Johnston more than once or twice?
If the answer to that question is yes, let’s hope those games have come this season. Johnston has scored five touchdowns in seven games, and he’s producing these numbers in an offense that hardly ever passes the ball. Last week, Justin Herbert attempted 18 passes in the entire game. Herbert isn’t even averaging 27 passing attempts per game this season. That is 10 fewer attempts than his career average.
Against the absolutely scorching hot Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, our model’s optimism for Johnston has as much to do with his recent performance as it does with the increase in opportunities he’s likely to see as a part of this game. Herbert is projected for a shade under 33 attempts this week and is eighth among all quarterbacks in projected passing yards.
If you’ve got players on a bye or the injury bug has caught up to you and Johnston is either available on the waiver wire or on your bench, the model thinks he is worthy of a start this week.
NFL Week 11 Sit ’Em
The Nays are our model’s fantasy players projected to underperform expert consensus:
Bo Nix, QB (DEN) vs. ATL (ECR: 9, Our Rank: QB14, PP: 15.14)
Nix has quietly been getting better and better over the last few weeks, culminating in the should-have-been-game-winning drive last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. The only problem? His fantasy production hasn’t followed the same progression as his overall game.
He enters Week 11 as a top-10 season-long quarterback, but he only has one game with 18 fantasy points in the last four weeks. That is partly due to the fact that teams have limited Nix’s scrambling lanes. He is fifth this season among quarterbacks in rushing yards, but he finished last week with –5 yards rushing and two weeks ago against the lowly Carolina Panthers, he only had four rushing yards.
Against the worst pass rush in the NFL, and with Nix’s play style centered around getting the ball out quickly, the model is projecting for only one quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) to have more passing attempts than Nix.
That number helps explain why Nix’s rushing projection is quite modest. He has been a top 10 quarterback this season, but the model suspects he’ll struggle to hit that benchmark this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
Kyren Williams, RB (LAR) vs NE (ECR: 6, Our Rank: RB15, PP: 16.38)
Every once in a while, a player the quality of Williams is added to the Nays section, and it’s as eye-opening for you the reader as it is for us. Williams entered this week first in the NFL in touches per game and second in touchdowns. He had at least one touchdown in each of his first seven games and only has one game this season with fewer than 20 touches.
That is the profile of a player that we all wish we could draft every year in fantasy. He gets the ball a lot, every game, and he almost always scores. High floor, high ceiling. Williams’ problem is that with the re-introduction of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua into the offense, his involvement in the passing game – which already wasn’t strong to begin with – will only continue to dwindle.
The model is not bullish of Williams chances of turning that around this week. And facing a New England Patriots defense this week that has held D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and Breece Hall all without a touchdown over the last three weeks, Williams chances of producing an RB1 result likely involve getting in the end zone, potentially multiple times.
If you have him, you’re almost certainly still starting him, but expectations should be slightly tempered.
Zay Flowers, WR (BAL) vs PIT (ECR: 17, Our Rank: WR29, PP: 12.14)
In our article last week, we highlighted the historic numbers Lamar Jackson was putting up throughout the first half of the season. He rewarded us with four more passing touchdowns, giving him an otherworldly 14 passing touchdowns over the last four weeks, and no interceptions.
Oh, Flowers last week? Four receptions for 34 yards.
If there’s one remaining regular season bugaboo left on Lamar’s resume, it’s his performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson has four touchdowns and seven interceptions in six career games against the Steelers, who remain the only team that Jackson has faced in his career in which he has a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 66.8 passer rating? Also the lowest.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have also had an outstanding start to the season. They are second in the NFL in points allowed and have only surrendered eight passing touchdowns through nine games. Lamar is still our model’s QB2 for the week, but he is 22nd in projected passing touchdowns. Flowers, as a result, is 50th among wide receivers in projected receiving touchdowns.
In the third-heaviest rush offense in the league (51.4% of plays) and with one of the most dominant forces in football spearheading the running game, that is not a recipe for success. Flowers is a Flex play at best.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram and X.