What Trump Inherits in Gaza

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to stop the war in Gaza, ending over a year of fighting that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, devastated the region, and spread to Lebanon, Yemen, and other countries nearby. Even if Trump is serious about keeping his promise, the chances of ending Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza are low and fighting is likely to continue.

Israel believes it is riding high, and even if Hamas offered a hostages-for-withdrawal deal—the core of cease-fire proposals in the past year—on favorable terms to Israel, it is unlikely that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would agree. Israel has decimated Hamas’s leadership and disrupted much of its military capacity. Although it has not destroyed Hamas completely, as Netanyahu has vowed, the group is on its heels, and Netanyahu contends that a cease-fire would allow the group to recover. Israel appears to have settled for a grinding conflict in Gaza with the goal of keeping Hamas weak, even if it prevents any larger political deal in the strip that would end the suffering there.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to stop the war in Gaza, ending over a year of fighting that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, devastated the region, and spread to Lebanon, Yemen, and other countries nearby. Even if Trump is serious about keeping his promise, the chances of ending Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza are low and fighting is likely to continue.

Israel believes it is riding high, and even if Hamas offered a hostages-for-withdrawal deal—the core of cease-fire proposals in the past year—on favorable terms to Israel, it is unlikely that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would agree. Israel has decimated Hamas’s leadership and disrupted much of its military capacity. Although it has not destroyed Hamas completely, as Netanyahu has vowed, the group is on its heels, and Netanyahu contends that a cease-fire would allow the group to recover. Israel appears to have settled for a grinding conflict in Gaza with the goal of keeping Hamas weak, even if it prevents any larger political deal in the strip that would end the suffering there.

On the Palestinian side, making peace—and enforcing it—is difficult. Israel has killed Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and other Hamas leaders, as well as numerous low-level commanders. The result is a leadership vacuum. This is particularly pronounced in Gaza, and it is unclear if external leadership has any influence over the Hamas fighters remaining in the strip. Any leader in Gaza who tries to consolidate control there is likely to end up on the receiving end of an Israeli missile strike.

Beyond the absence of leadership, the lack of Palestinian unity in general makes it difficult for another Palestinian actor to step up and take over Gaza in the event of a cease-fire. Israel has indicated, both in word and deed, that it has little faith in the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank, and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas—even though the PA has repeatedly worked with Israeli security forces. Although the PA and Hamas have taken steps to put aside their perennial rivalry and allow a technocratic government to take power in Gaza, alternative Palestinian leaders would have to rely on their support, or at least acquiescence, to manage the strip, and Israel appears unlikely to tolerate even a small Hamas presence.

It is also unclear who would mediate. Qatar, which has long played a role in trying to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas, recently announced that it would pause its mediation and expel Hamas representatives from Doha, a move probably designed to placate critics in the Trump administration, who have accused the Qatari regime of coddling terrorists. Egypt can still assist, however, but Qatar’s concern—that openly helping Hamas would earn the ire of Trump officials—is a valid one that other Middle Eastern governments will heed.

U.S. President Joe Biden was not able to negotiate a cease-fire, and he appears far more willing to put pressure on Israel than Trump. The people that Trump has so far indicated he will appoint, such as Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state, are strong supporters of hardline Israeli positions. They might preside over a Hamas surrender but are unlikely to make tough demands of the Israeli government.

Within Israel, Netanyahu’s far-right government has moved even further to the right. Last weel, Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who favored a cease-fire deal with Hamas. In addition Netanyahu’s apparent belief that easing pressure on Hamas will allow the group to recover, an end to the fighting would also lead to a political day of reckoning for him, with his long-time critics uniting with those who hold him responsible for Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

Indeed, Netanyahu’s policy of continuing the war in Gaza and expanding the conflict in Lebanon, where Israel has devastated Hezbollah in recent months, appears popular. Netanyahu is not in a good political position today, but he is in a far better one vis-à-vis his rivals than he was a year ago.

The Israeli military’s actions on the ground speak the loudest about Israel’s intention to remain at war. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are building fortified positions along the Netzarim Corridor, dividing Gaza to hinder Hamas’s mobility and increase that of Israeli forces. Israel appears reluctant to deploy large numbers of forces to Gaza, avoiding direct rule, and has recently deployed only several thousand troops there—a fraction of what it deployed in the past. At the same time, it is chasing Hamas fighters wherever they reappear. In northern Gaza, for example, Israel conducted a devastating campaign at the beginning of the war, pushing out Hamas and hundreds of thousands of Gazan civilians. After Israeli forces left, Hamas fighters reappeared, and now Israel is engaged in a whack-a-mole approach, trying to kill them wherever they pop up.

The status quo, however debilitating and horrific, may be the most likely future for Gaza. Although Israel’s military and society are exhausted by more than a year a fighting and Palestinians on the strip are suffering a massive humanitarian crisis, the effort required to keep the war going in Gaza is limited, at least compared to the all-out assault a year ago. In contrast, peace would require acquiescence by Hamas, effective mediators, and an Israel eager to end the war, all of which are lacking. A new administration, no matter how ambitious, will find it difficult to create peace in these conditions.