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Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump preparing for his second term, Japan establishing a minority government, and the key goals of this year’s U.N. Climate Change Conference.
Policy Preparations
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has 70 days until he takes office, but his foreign-policy decision-making has already begun.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump preparing for his second term, Japan establishing a minority government, and the key goals of this year’s U.N. Climate Change Conference.
Policy Preparations
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has 70 days until he takes office, but his foreign-policy decision-making has already begun.
The United Nations. On Monday, Trump nominated New York Rep. Elise Stefanik to be the United States’ ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik is a longtime critic of the international body. She has accused the U.N. of antisemitism for criticizing Israel’s settlements in the West Bank, and in October, she called for the “complete reassessment of U.S. funding of the United Nations.”
Last year, Stefanik went viral for her vigorous questioning of elite university presidents about antisemitism on college campuses, the result of which ultimately forced several university leaders to resign. Her appointment suggests that the incoming Trump administration intends to more aggressively defend Israel in international bodies, such as the U.N.
Israel-Hamas war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he has spoken with Trump three times since the election last Tuesday and that the two men “see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its components and the danger it poses.”
It is unclear if Trump’s administration will help mediate cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas, which is backed by Tehran. The president-elect has expressed support for Netanyahu’s efforts to achieve “total victory” and has argued that a truce deal would only allow Hamas to regroup, but he has also stressed the need for the war in Gaza to end.
Negotiations remain largely at a standstill. On Saturday, Qatar announced that it will temporarily suspend its mediation efforts until Hamas and Israel “show their willingness” to negotiate.
Russia-Ukraine war. The Washington Post reported on Sunday that Trump had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin last Thursday to urge Moscow not to escalate its war against Ukraine. The Kremlin dismissed the report on Monday as “pure fiction” and said there were no concrete plans yet to connect with the president-elect. Trump (alongside billionaire Elon Musk) spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last Wednesday.
Trump has touted his ability to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours, saying he could negotiate a peace deal before he takes office in January. But the details for how he plans to do that remain vague. Trump has previously suggested that he will pressure Putin and Zelensky with promises of aid (or the lack thereof) to Ukraine, whereas Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has said Washington would help negotiate a demilitarized zone that forces Ukraine to cede some of its territory to Russia and restricts Kyiv from joining NATO.
Meanwhile, Moscow and Kyiv continue their war efforts, with both sides launching their largest drone strikes yet over the weekend. According to Ukraine’s military chief on Monday, tens of thousands of Russian forces have amassed in Russia’s Kursk region to retake territory seized during Kyiv’s surprise August incursion.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, Nov. 12: U.S. President Joe Biden hosts Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto separately. French President Emmanuel Macron hosts NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hosts European Council President-elect António Costa.
Wednesday, Nov. 13: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi begins a two-day trip to Iran.
Somaliland holds a presidential election.
Thursday, Nov. 14: Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections.
Friday, Nov. 15, to Saturday, Nov. 16: Peru hosts the two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit.
Saturday, Nov. 16: Gabon holds a constitutional referendum.
Sunday, Nov. 17: Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.
Monday, Nov. 18, to Tuesday, Nov. 19: Brazil hosts the two-day G-20 leaders’ summit.
What We’re Following
Voting updates. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba won a parliamentary vote on Monday, allowing him to stay on as leader of a minority government. Ishiba received 221 votes from his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito in the runoff—Tokyo’s first in 30 years. This puts Ishiba still short of a majority in the lower house but ahead of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
Ishiba must now garner enough support for his coalition to win next year’s elections for the less powerful upper house. Among his first challenges will be compiling a supplementary budget, which he needs at least one opposition party’s support for to push it through. Ishiba will likely turn to the Democratic Party for the People despite the group not voting for Ishiba to stay in power. This is the first time that the LDP has lost its majority rule in 15 years.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also addressed parliamentary calls for a confidence vote on Sunday. After the firing of his finance minister last week led to the collapse of his ruling “traffic light” coalition, Scholz has agreed to hold a confidence vote before Dec. 25. This is earlier than the January deadline that Scholz initially offered but much later than what his opponents wanted; they had urged him to hold a vote by the end of this week. Experts expect Scholz to lose the vote, which would pave the way for snap elections by March 2025.
Finance COP. Delegates from nearly 200 countries gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday to kick off this year’s U.N. Climate Change Conference, known as COP29. The attendees will have to address their collective failure to deliver on last year’s pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, with new data showing that 2024 is on track to become the hottest year in recorded history.
Many leaders are calling COP29 the “Finance COP,” as this year’s key goal is to create a new target for funding climate action in developing countries, which carry the brunt of climate change’s effects despite being among the world’s lowest greenhouse gas emitters. However, Trump winning the U.S. election has cast a shadow over the summit. “Everyone going in there knows that the politics in Washington have taken a dramatic turn, and that turn is not in favor of accelerating climate action,” Alice Hill, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told FP’s Christina Lu.
Severe weather. Cuba is reeling from back-to-back earthquakes on Sunday after weeks of devastating storms. The first quake measured at a magnitude of 4.0 and the second reached 6.8 on the Richter scale. No injuries have been reported thus far, but locals worry that the natural disasters will worsen already bleak conditions in the country.
Severe storms have battered Cuba in recent weeks, with the latest being a Category 3 hurricane that made landfall on Wednesday and sparked nationwide blackouts. Authorities restored power to roughly 90 percent of residents by the weekend, but prolonged outages have sparked rare public protests. On Saturday, Cuban officials said they would not tolerate “public disorder” as emergency workers continue to clear debris and work to fix the country’s electric grid.
Odds and Ends
More than 1,000 mariachis performed classic songs in Mexico City’s main plaza on Sunday, apparently beating the previous world record of 700 mariachis, who had gathered in Guadalajara in 2013. The musicians—armed with guitars, trumpets, and a slew of other instruments—celebrated the sounds of the traditional Mexican music form.