ANALYSIS: COP29: What to expect from climate summit in Baku

As the 29th Edition of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) kicks off today (Monday) in the capital city of Azerbaijan, Baku, countries are geared towards agreeing to far more ambitious climate finance targets to address lingering impacts of climate change effects ravaging countries globally.

The expectations among climate advocates and activists, particularly in countries of the Global South, are notably high. This is especially true for African nations that are experiencing the adverse effects of climate change more acutely, despite contributing significantly less to global greenhouse gas emissions.

This year, COP29 has been dubbed the “climate finance COP” since its primary objective is  to get parties to agree on how much money should go each year to help developing countries upscale climate adaptation measures and follow the part of green growth seamlessly without debt burden.

There are speculations that this year’s negotiation could be very tough following last week’s re-election of former US President Donald Trump, a climate denier,  who had pulled out the United States of America — the top historic greenhouse gas emitter and leading oil and gas producer—from the  historic 2015 Paris Agreement during his first term in office.

In 2017, Mr Trump said the Paris accord would undermine the US economy, cost US jobs, weaken American national sovereignty and put the country at a permanent disadvantage to the other countries of the world.

“We’re getting out,” Reuters quoted the newly elected president as having said at the time, adding that “We don’t want other leaders and other countries laughing at us any more. And they won’t be.”

“The same nations asking us to stay in the agreement are the countries that have collectively cost America trillions of dollars through tough trade practices and in many cases lax contributions to our critical military alliance,” Mr Trump added.

This year, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said ambitious outcomes in Baku are vital, because unless all countries can cut emissions and build more resilience into global supply chains, no economy – including the G20 – will survive unchecked global heating, and no household will be spared its severe inflationary impacts.

“With climate impacts inflicting growing human and economic costs in every country, every COP is a vital global moment that must deliver major progress, and COP29 is no exception,” the conference conveners said.

According to the organisers, this year, the discussions at COP29, billed to run from 11-22 November, are expected to be focused on climate finance, mitigation, and adaptation, with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) designed to provide support for vulnerable communities in global climate solutions.

Climate finance

During the 15th edition of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) in 2009, Parties agreed that developed countries provide or mobilise $100 billion per year in climate finance for developing countries by 2020. It was eventually extended to 2025 at COP21 in Paris.

In 2022, developed countries exceeded the $100 billion goal for the first time, providing and mobilising $115.9 billion in climate finance, marking a 30 per cent  increase from 2021, the largest year-on-year increase to date. 

However, the $100 billion target is due to expire in 2025, and countries are expected to agree on a NCQG at COP29 in Baku. Organisers have hinted that the NCQG will need to be based on the needs of developing countries and support just transition pathways.

Meanwhile, as COP29 aims to set a much higher target for the years ahead, wealthy nations are insisting that the money cannot come entirely from their budgets. Instead, there are reports that the developed countries are strategizing a far more complex move that would involve reforming the global multilateral lending complex in ways that de-escalate climate-linked financial risks and encourage more private capital.

It’s still not clear how much money wealthy nations will provide for climate efforts each year, since the $100 billion target was largely unfelt. There’s also debate about whether emerging economies like China and wealthy oil countries in the Middle East should pitch in, a viewpoint supported by the United States and the European Union.

Regardless, countries are looking to change how the global banking system works to help increase the amount of money available for climate initiatives. The United Nations agencies say that trillions of dollars are needed each year to effectively tackle climate change. However, officials from Azerbaijan, which is hosting the upcoming climate conference, believe a more realistic goal is to secure “hundreds of billions” of dollars through a joint agreement.

Loss and damage funds

One of the historic moments at COP28 last year in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, was the operationalisation of the “Loss and Damage” funds to support climate vulnerable countries. The fund was established at COP27 in Egypt in 2022 with the aim of helping poor countries recover from losses incurred from climate-driven disasters like extreme floods, storms or drought.

Following the adoption of the fund at the opening plenary at COP28 last year, over $660 million has been mobilised through the newly created Fund For Responding To Loss and Damage, that will be headquartered in the Philippines.

At the time, many climate activists had lauded the move by the world leaders, saying the adoption of the new fund initiative will help to galvanise climate-resilient development for developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, there are lingering concerns.

This year, climate-vulnerable countries are expected to call on wealthy nations to offer more support as the climate crisis bites harder amidst inflation pressures across nations.

Fossil fuel transition

At COP28 last year, after two weeks of contentious negotiations, countries agreed for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, dubbed the “UAE Consensus”. 

Concerns over language calling for a “phase-out/phase-down of fossil fuel” and other weak emphasis highlighted in the negotiation text before an agreement was reached among the parties, triggered major debate among parties and climate negotiators. Despite this, a clear roadmap/timeline as to when the agreement would come into force is still lacking as fossil fuel sales and exportation continue to grow globally.

Many countries and businesses are still uncertain about fully moving away from coal, oil, and gas. Climate activists and negotiators are hoping that the COP29 meeting will establish clear timelines and stronger commitments to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

They want an end to the construction of new coal plants and other measures to help maintain the goal of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the middle of this century.

Adaptation

During COP 28 last year, Parties committed to a more proactive framework of guidelines for national plans to help people adapt to climate-induced disruptions such as flooding, warmer days, rising sea levels and the destruction of farming activities/communities. Although there were concerns that the framework for adaptation lacks sufficient and specific details, such as quantifiable targets for measuring progress or strategies for linking projects with climate finance.

Sultan Al Jaber, the President of COP28, called for greater efforts to tackle adaptation finance gaps and prioritise actions to make climate finance more accessible to vulnerable nations.

“Adaptation and resilience initiatives are a last line of defence, literally saving lives in Vanuatu, by minimising the impacts of the worsening climate crisis. Yet, Small Island Developing States struggle to access the funding we need to support the adaptation plans and programs that are so desperately required in our island communities,” he said.

This year, countries are likely going to be dissecting ways to improve adaptation targets and to set more specific adaptation goals during COP29 negotiations .

This report is published as part of COP29 Reporting Fellowship of the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development