Written by 
With 14 extra Dáil seats up for grabs, a high number of incumbent TDs standing aside as well as a groundswell in support for Independents, this election campaign makes for an unpredictable mix.
But there are a number of key constituencies — our equivalent of America’s swing states — that will provide an indication of the overall outcome for the main parties as well as smaller groupings.
With half of his sitting TDs not running this time around, Simon Harris is hoping a presidential style campaign which puts him front and centre will draw votes for lesser-known Fine Gael candidates seeking to break through to replace the 18 departing incumbents.
It’s a strategy that was taken in 2020 when Mary Lou McDonald’s party saw a plethora of first-time TDs elected on the strength of the Sinn Fein brand. McDonald’s party, which has scrambled to address four unrelated controversies in recent weeks, has seen support ebb, but the scale of decline may not be as acute as seen in ongoing polling.
Fianna Fáil, is prioritising policy over personality, which plays into the ‘strong and stable’ messaging which Micheál Martin has emphasized over the lifetime of the outgoing coalition.
It is also a pivotal election for the Social Democrats, a party that can no longer rely on the ‘newbie’ title; while Labour must finally shake itself of the toxicity left behind from it’s last stint in Government.
An unprecedented number of Independents will appear on ballot papers, including a significant cohort who have left the main parties to go it alone. What will that do to the traditional support bases?
Here are five constituencies that will tell a lot about the national voting picture:
Cork South Central has been known as a constituency of political giants with three senior ministers taking seats last time around.
But the departure of long-serving Fine Gael blueblood Simon Coveney, coupled with Michael McGrath’s elevation to the European Commission, has significantly altered the landscape.
Fine Gael is running three candidates this time around, but some senior sources have conceded that with Coveney gone the party is lacking the counterbalance it once had to Fianna Fáil’s dominance.
While Tánaiste Micheál Martin is expected to easily retain his seat, as a party leader going into government formation talks he will want to prove himself as a strong vote-getter. This is somewhat complicated by the fact that his running mate, Seamus McGrath, the brother of the former Finance Minister, took the highest first-preference vote of any candidate in the recent local elections.
There are also questions for Sinn Féin. Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire comfortably topped the poll in 2020 and the party would have been targeting a possible second seat here not so long ago. While Michelle Cowhey Shahid has been recently added as a running mate, she is now seen as more of a sweeper to ensure Ó Laoghaire is free from danger.
Traditionally, support for Labour has been strong, with Ciarán Lynch, Toddy O’Sullivan and Eileen Desmond all representing the constituency since the 1980s. Whether councillor Laura Harmon can get across the line to regain a seat for the party will be a clear indication as to Labour’s standing across the country.
However, she will come up against Social Democrats councillor Pádraig Rice and Independent Mick Finn who are both putting in strong campaigns.
Could Wicklow become a constituency of death that sees the departure of a senior minister?
“Simon Harris is obviously going to top the poll, but after than it’s impossible to know,” said one constituency source in providing an overview of this highly unpredictable battleground.
Having undergone significant changes as a result of the boundary re-draw, Wicklow has been cut from five seats to four. However, all of the current TDs are fighting to their retain their seats, meaning at least one will fall.
The Taoiseach, buoyed up by his recent ascension to party leader, is expected to comfortably get across the line and will hope to bring in a running mate. But Harris will face an unexpected threat from a former member of Fine Gael.
Shay Cullen, who topped the poll in the Wicklow district during the 2019 local elections, amassing 21.5% of the vote and exceeding the quota on the first count, had expected to get the nod as Mr Harris’ running mate.
Instead, councillor Edward Timmins, the brother of former TD Billy Timmins, was selected.
In announcing his intention to run as an Independent after the snub, Cullen hit out at the “convention antics” and “wider internal party struggles in dealing with ongoing claims of bullying and coercion of members countrywide”.
Fianna Fáil is going with a one-candidate strategy in the hope of retaining Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, who had faced difficulty in getting out of the selection convention before senator Pat Casey withdrew his name. He is likely to be battling it out with two other incumbents Steven Mathews of the Green Party and Social Democrats TD Jennifer Whitmore for the final seats.
Sinn Féin is not without its woes this time around and despite topping the poll in 2020, John Brady has seen a chunk of what would have been considered his heartland of Arklow, taken away in the boundary redraw.
As the ballot boxes are opened and counting begins, general election anoraks will be keeping a tight eye on Carlow-Kilkenny now seen as a bell-weather constituency.
This five-seater will tell a lot about whether Simon Harris’ strategy to elect fresh candidates on the back of a Fine Gael wave has worked. It could also reveal a wider trend in relation to Mary Lou McDonald’s fortunes.
Kathleen Funchion topped the poll with almost 24% of the vote in 2020. However, she has since been elected to the European Parliament, leaving Sinn Féin bereft of an incumbent.
The party has decided on two candidates, but it will be an uphill struggle for Natasha Newsome Drennan who won less than 500 first preferences in the local elections, and Áine Gladney Knox who also failed to get elected in June.
If Sinn Féin cannot retain representation in a five-seater, it could signal a national crisis for the party.
Carlow-Kilkenny is among the list of constituencies where Fine Gael has been forced to seek new blood after long-serving TD John Paul Phelan decided not to run.
The party has selected David Fitzgerald, Michael Doyle and Catherine Callanan and will be under pressure to secure at least one seat.
Fianna Fáil is confident of retaining both John McGuinness and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor but has its sights set on a possible third seat after selecting local councillor Peter ‘Chap’ Cleere. But this could be threatened by the addition of Independent candidate Eugene McGuinness, the brother of Fianna Fáil sitting TD, John.
The Green Party will be expecting to lose some seats this time around, but it may just cling on in Carlow-Kilkenny where junior minister Malcolm Noonan is well known on the ground. If he keeps his place in Leinster House, it will signal that the Greens will be at the upper end of electoral expectations.
Dublin Central’s four sitting TDs are hoping to retain the four available seats, but a number of wildcard additions could shake things up significantly.
With 44% of voters in this constituency living in rented accommodation, the Government’s housing record will also be tightly scrutinised by those going to the polls.
In an unexpected move, former MEP Clare Daly has announced she is to run and will go head-to-head with both Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe in Dublin Central.
She could take votes from all four incumbents, eking into the support gained by Social Democrats Gary Gannon and outspoken Green Party TD Neasa Hourigan.
However, that is not where the surprises end as it has been reported that Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch is seriously considering a tilt at the Dáil. He was released on €100,000 bail in Lanzarote this week but is said to be “even more determined than ever” to run in the election after a series of raids on property related to him both in Spain and Dublin.
This is the constituency in which Mary Lou McDonald could easily have brought a running mate back in 2020. In an interesting turn, Sinn Féin has also put Janice Boylan on the ticket this time. In 2022, Boylan had threatened to leave Sinn Féin telling her council colleagues that she did not feel “supported, valued or even really respected” in the party.
“The final nail on the head was when I applied for the part-time role in Mary Lou’s office, which would have been perfect for me to feel connected again, supported and wanted,” she wrote after she failed to secure a position in the Sinn Féin leader’s office.
With two of the four seats being vacated and a former Sinn Féin TD now running as an Independent, the constituency of Clare is wide open.
This is a crucial area for Fianna Fáil if it is to gain ground and the party will be going after two seats. But it also could provide the Greens with a unique opportunity to make a gain.
Cathal Crowe of Fianna Fáil is hoping to retain his seat with sitting senator Timmy Dooley seeking to regain a Dáil seat he lost in 2020.
Fine Gael, which before the last election had two sitting TDs in the constituency, goes into this poll without an incumbent after Joe Carey stepped down in September due to ill health. His sister Leonora has been put forward and in a last-minute addition, the national executive has added councillor Joe Cooney.
Similar to Laois-Offally where Brian Stanley is to run as an Independent, Sinn Féin finds itself in a predicament in Clare. Violent Anne Wynne is standing again, but having left Sinn Féin, she will be running as an Independent.
Clare has previously elected smaller parties and individual candidates including Moosajee Bhamjee for the Labour Party, Michael Harty who campaigned on access to health services, and Michael McNamara.
With McNamara’s election to the European Parliament, could there be room for a new fringe candidate?
Green Party deputy leader and senator Roisin Garvey is strongly placed and vocal in the constituency, but with the Green tide going out, it will be a difficult campaign for her.
Eddie Punch is perhaps the most well-known of the Independents currently putting themselves forward for election.