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The 2024 ATP Finals group stages have been drawn. Top seed Jannik Sinner and former champion Daniil Medvedev will headline the Ilie Nastase Group, while fifth seed Taylor Fritz and tournament newcomer Alex de Minaur will also participate.
In the John Newcombe Group, second seed Alexander Zverev and this year’s Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz lead the charge, accompanied by Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev.
The group stages kick off on November 10th, and players are bidding for the chance to win $4,881,100 if they go undefeated during the tournament.
Nitto 2024 ATP Finals Draw
Singles
| Ilie Nastase Group | John Newcombe Group |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner (1) | Alexander Zverev (2) |
| Daniil Medvedev (4) | Carlos Alcaraz (3) |
| Taylor Fritz (5) | Casper Ruud (6) |
| Alex de Minaur (7) | Andrey Rublev (8) |
Doubles
| Bob Bryan Group | Mike Bryan Group |
|---|---|
| Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic (1) | Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (2) |
| Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori (4) | Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (3) |
| Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden (6) | Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson (5) |
| Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz (8) | Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten (7) |
Quick Draw Analysis + Predictions
Group Ilie Nastase
Jannik Sinner is the world’s number one, and he’s been dominant on hard courts this season, so he heads in comfortably as the favourite.
Two Grand Slams, three Masters 1000 titles, two ATP 500 titles, and two failed doping tests are the highlights of his season, so it’s difficult not to see last year’s runner-up going one better.
4th seed Daniil Medvedev, the 2020 champion, also finds himself in Group Ilie Nastase, but unless he can hit his serve and forehand like he could a year ago, I can’t see him making it out of the group.
Since May, Meddy has had a 2-10 record against top 30 players, so putting him in against guys in the top eight looks like an uphill task.
Unlike the rest of the field, he’s also not won a title this season, and the vast majority of points that got him to Torino came from the first few events of the season.
For whatever reason, his serve and forehand lack potency. Based on his murmurings, the shoulder plays a role, and I can’t think of a better explanation.
Tactically, he’s still right there, but holding serve has been a big problem this year, giving him less freedom on the return.
While he holds a 6-3 record against de Minaur, he’s only played Fritz once, and I think the American will make it through the group stages to the semi-finals.
Predicted semifinalists: Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz
Group John Newcombe
Alexander Zverev heads into Turin after dominantly winning the Paris Masters. He’s got a career-best 66-20 record this year, marking the most match wins in a single season for him.
Zverev has previously won the ATP Finals twice, claiming his first title in 2018 and following it up with another in 2021, and I think he’s the second favourite pre-tournament.
We haven’t seen the conditions in Turin, but based on Paris, if it’s playing fast, it’s not ideal for 3rd seed Carlos Alcaraz, who is at his best when he can use different spins and heights on the ball to work the points.
However, given Ruud and Rublev’s recent form, I’d still make Carlos a comfortable semi-finalist. He maintains a perfect 4-0 record against Ruud. And beat Rublev in Turin last year in straight sets.
Ruud is on a four-match losing streak and has lost eight of his last nine matches. He holds a 4-12 H2H record against the other three in the group, making it unlikely he’ll improve that this time around.
Rublev, too, has had an inconsistent year. He failed to win a match at both the Shanghai Masters and the Paris Masters, and in his four previous ATP Finals appearances, he has only advanced past the group stage once.
Predicted semifinalists: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz
Schedule:
Sunday 10th November:
14:00: Daniil Medvedev vs. Taylor Fritz
20:30: Jannik Sinner vs. Alex De Minaur
Monday 11th November:
14:00: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud
20:30: Alexander Zverev vs. Andrey Rublev
Who is your pick for the 2024 ATP Finals?