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I’ve realized the value of taking breaks.
Mind you, they’re unintentional. I’ll be working in my office, and my attention must turn to a riveting breakdown of the varying strategies within Dragon City. I don’t know what Cuphead is, but I’m learning. Anyway, like any parent, “working” from home comes with its challenges. Kids are (and should be!) a constant diversion from football. But that’s not a bad thing.
We’re through the halfway point of the season, and interruptions have felt like the only consistent part of our game. The first month was a scramble to adjust to real football. Weeks 5 through 8 have been sorting through what’s real or fake. However, each storyline gives us enough information to make our rosters better.
And, of course, the drama coming out of Week 9 was no different.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and De’Von Achane: Your 2024 RB kings
Honestly, I just wanted to shoehorn Saquon Barkley into a topic so I could rewatch his backward hurdle from Sunday:
There’s a part in the movie “Tombstone” after Wyatt Earp mows down a group of Cowboys, Texas Jack and Turkey Creek Jack Johnson struggle to comprehend what they just saw.
“Did you ever see anything like that before?”
“Hell, I ain’t never even heard of anything like that.”
That’s what we saw on Sunday. A feat we couldn’t think was in the realm of possibility. But Barkley wasn’t the only rusher defying our preconceived notions.
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Derrick Henry’s 21 games with 100 yards or more rank third all-time amongst RBs. His workload is second to none.
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De’Von Achane’s 19.3% in his seven full games is the fourth-highest at the position over the last five years. He’s Miami’s WR3.
At 30 years old, Henry is on pace to eclipse 2,000 yards for the second time in his career. Achane has more targets (42) than teammate Jaylen Waddle (38). Along with Barkley giving Giants’ owner John Mara more reasons not to sleep well, we didn’t expect this. However, what they’re doing puts them in line with the best fantasy performances we’ve seen in some time.
Looking at big fantasy scores, especially if they’re on our starting rosters, only gives us part of the story. We just know they hit their projection that week. So, understanding usage is critical. And over the last four years, the elite RBs have been nothing but focal points of their offense.
Christian McCaffrey posting 18.0% and 20.0% target shares in back-to-back seasons kept him in the 1.01 discussion. Plus, remaining in as the primary RB when the 49ers got into scoring position, so much so that they tried to keep his TD streak alive, made him untouchable via trade. Josh Jacobs hit a career-high in carries (340) in ’22, boosting him to the RB3 on the season. Austin Ekeler earned 127 targets in a single year.
The names emphasize the different archetypes characterizing a top-three RB, but the point remains the same: (contextualized) volume is king. Although, Achane’s return to the spotlight highlights another important aspect of a high-end RB.
The second-year runner has scored 20.0 or more PPR points in every game Tua Tagovailoa has completed. Offensive situation matters. Higher team efficiency means more red-zone plays, leading to increased chances at a TD. They’re all connected. And with all three headlining top-10 squads in efficiency and yardage marks, we should be valuing them as the best at their position for the reason of the season.
Zay Flowers is a different WR this year
We’ve come a long way in terms of differentiating between WRs. With plenty of smart folks deciphering route trees and skill sets, a WR1 doesn’t mean the same thing as it did even five years ago. But Baltimore makes things all the more difficult.
Zay Flowers landing with the Ravens made him the team’s primary receiver. He garnered first-round draft capital, and the Ravens’ best option at wideout was oft-injured Rashod Bateman. On talent alone, Flowers was Lamar Jackson’s best option. And yet, when compared to his peers, Flowers only had the targets to stake his claim as a WR1.
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Air Yard Share: 22.8% (27th – out of 27 qualifying WRs, min. 20.0% target share)
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Targets per Route Run Rate: 20.7% (24th)
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Yards per Route Run: 1.65 (22nd)
To be fair, the Boston College product was still a rookie. He had to establish a rapport with his QB. And now, with time to develop and gain comfort with OC Todd Monken’s system, we’ve seen a different Flowers in Year 2.
Monken and Jackson did what any rational offense would to get their top option involved: they put the ball in his hands. Of Flowers’ 77 receptions, 61 of them came on passes of 10 air yards or less (Marvin Harrison Jr. wishes he got the same treatment). Otherwise, Flowers’s speed gave him the edge in coverage. He accrued 17.2% of his yardage on deep Posts or Go routes.
We can’t say the same in 2024.
Last year, Jackson targeted Flowers in the short area of the field on 38.8% of his looks. They’re now connecting at intermediate depths at a 31.7% clip. Accordingly, Flowers has notched top-three numbers in YAC per reception (6.8), YPRR (2.45) and explosive play rate (24.7%). We’re looking at a true WR1.
Lamar Jackson is playing like an MVP (again). Teams are forced into zone coverage to account for Jackson the thrower, Jackson the runner and Derrick Henry rumbling their way. The result is free releases for Flowers. His average 4.1 yards of separation are the fifth-most among active WRs. So, as the offense continues to dominate, expect Flowers to be one of the main contributors and a weekly WR1 option for the rest of the season.
Bad news Bears
The Cardinals gave us a good encapsulation of the Bears’ season on Sunday:
Granted, Williams was facing a third-and-long situation. But at three seconds, you can see all three Chicago WRs within a step of their defender. Nobody separates. In an instant, three pass rushers get home. Rinse, repeat.
On the one hand, Williams hasn’t been great. He’s faced pressure on more than 25.0% of his dropbacks in all but two games. Under duress, only Bo Nix (-0.51 EPA per play) and Will Levis (-0.62) are less efficient. Williams’ 9.9% sack rate is on a historic (derogatory) trend. But, on the other hand, the offense isn’t set up for success.
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Passing Rate (on early downs): 24th
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Rushing Success Rate: 20th
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Yards per Play: 23rd
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Average Yards to Go on Third Down: 24th
Chicago wants to use its ground game to set up the pass. That’s fine. However, if your starting RB ranks at or near the bottom in rushing success rate, forced missed tackle rate and adjusted yards after contact, you might have a problem. D’Andre Swift’s debilitating rushing efficiency puts the entire offense behind schedule (Caleb included!). The byproduct has been Williams attempting the sixth-most passes with more than seven yards to go on third down.
And, for those wondering, he’s converted only nine.
So, the offensive game plan has Williams at a disadvantage. His ability to limit negative plays has come and gone each week, too. He’s oscillated from a 15.6% scramble rate down to 6.0% in just the past two weeks. Honestly, I could look past the inaccuracy if he only had one target earner. However, Williams has multiple options to look at as a defensive lineman takes him down.
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DJ Moore (since their bye): 23.0% (target share), 25.0% (air yard share), 16.0% (targets per route run)
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Keenan Allen: 29.0%, 37.0%, 20.0%
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Rome Odunze: 23.0%, 36.0%, 18.0%
We’re dealing with a passing game that doesn’t pass with a QB still under development. Savvy defensive coordinators know to get in his face early and often. Against Houston, L.A. (Rams) and Washington, Williams faced a blitz on over 30.0% of his dropbacks. And he has Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit on the docket over his next four games. With no receiver stepping up out of the trio, we can’t trust any of them in this ailing Bears offense.
Disappointment in Dallas
I’m (not) a certified lip reader, but I think Dak Prescott isn’t happy with how the season has gone.
The Cowboys are 3-5. Their backfield is in shambles. Dak’s hamstring injury is just icing on the cake. It’s easy to point at the $60M-man as the problem, and I won’t fight you over that notion. However, the issues extend past the guy under center, which is going to make it rough for Cooper Rush.
Prescott has been, and will continue to be, an aggressive passer. His tight window throw rate has been one of the highest in the league over the past three seasons. It’s also how HC Mike McCarthy (and Dak) has constructed the offense. Every receiver outside of CeeDee Lamb has a double-digit aDOT. The only pass-catchers available in the short area of the field are Rico Dowdle and Jake Ferguson. So, the high degree of difficulty invites volatility. Couple his style with a drop (pun intended for Kavonte Turpin specifically) in Prescott’s supporting cast, and you can see why the Cowboys only have a three in the win column.
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2024 (on non-CeeDee-Lamb targets): 0.08 (EPA per Target), 6.5 (Yards per Play), 2.8 (YAC per Reception)
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2023: 0.20, 7.0, 3.2
Prescott’s pressure rate has been north of 30.0% over the last four months as he’s looked downfield for answers. Sometimes, the solution is simple. However, defenses will force Rush to take shots like they’ve done to Dak. And Rush’s adjusted completion percentage (64.1%) and 51.8 PFF Passing Grade were outside the top 20 during his last stint as a starter. Between the disjointed offense and the QB switch, lowering expectations for the fantasy-relevant players makes sense.
Lamb was at least able to take on a 20.0% target share after Rush took over for Prescott. His shoulder injury bears monitoring, but after target counts of 14, 16 and 13 over his last three games, Lamb falls into the mid-range WR2 category on volume alone. With Rush’s quicker trigger finger, Dallas’ WR1 and Jake Ferguson (at 4.7 air yards per target) still have utility, with byes and injuries limiting our options. However, with the RB rotation in flux and a rough schedule ahead, Dowdle’s Week 9 is tough to trust moving forward.
Kansas City has found its WR1
Every personnel move Kansas City makes garners our attention. Look at how quickly we learned about Carson Steele’s family when Isiah Pacheco went down. But the trade for DeAndre Hopkins was different. The Chiefs added a future Hall-of-Fame talent to their passing game. We could get excited about Patrick Mahomes in fantasy again. And the duo delivered on Monday night.
Quick aside — a “Remember the Titans” celly is an elite choice.
Anyway, more importantly, watch Hopkins‘s pre-snap alignment. I realize it’s a goal-line play, but aligning the 32-year-old WR closer to the formation clashes with my memories of Nuk. He was a menace as a field stretcher on the outside. But leave it to Andy Reid to figure out how to get the best out of a receiver with Hopkins’ talent as a route runner.
Hopkins played on at least 50.0% of the snaps for Tennessee in five games. As a Titan, his receiving aDOT was at 11.3 yards, and he played inside on 14.3% of his snaps. Half of his looks came on passes in the intermediate parts of the field. His usage looked like last year’s.
Reid had better ideas.
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Week 8: 15.0 (aDOT), 9.1% (slot rate), 0.0% (Short-Area Target Rate)
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Week 9: 8.8, 38.0%, 88.9%
Hopkins’ NextGenStats route tree says it all. While leading KC’s WR corps in targets (9), Hopkins played the most snaps from the interior. Only Travis Kelce got the ball more when Mahomes was under pressure. But Kelce didn’t look as cool coming down with the ball. And, I don’t want to alarm anyone, but Reid deployed Hopkins like a receiver that the team has been missing for a few weeks.
But before you try to negotiate a trade, the Chiefs still have (some) help returning. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s hamstring has kept him from practice since Week 7. Hopkins entered the season with an MCL tear. Kansas City’s three-peat aspirations would incentivize it to minimize workloads throughout the regular season. Consequently, Nuk’s slot rate may fluctuate, but there’s no question as to his impact on the offense.
Mahomes eclipsed 20.0 fantasy points for the first time since Week 12 of last year. The offense has posted top-10 marks in EPA per play in consecutive weeks. But the next two weeks will be a true test (vs DEN, at BUF). Hopkins’ connection and schematic involvement in the offense give him high-end WR2 value for the rest of the season. The schedule might be tough, but with Mahomes throwing him the ball, they’ll find a way.