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CLIMATEWIRE | Some of this election’s most important battlegrounds for climate policy have nothing to do with the Electoral College.
Governors’ mansions, legislatures and even climate policy itself are on the ballot across the country.
In Washington state, voters will render an up-or-down verdict on one of the country’s most aggressive systems for cutting emissions. In North Carolina, the next governor could gain some legislative support to boost electric vehicles — or the governor’s office could flip and go to a Republican who denies the reality of climate change. And in Minnesota, where Gov. Tim Walz enacted major climate laws before becoming the vice presidential nominee, Democrats are looking to defend their narrow control over the Legislature.
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These down-ballot races will carry implications far beyond state lines. After years of preparing and finally passing climate policy, Democrats are about to discover how popular those actions truly are — and whether it’s safe for lawmakers elsewhere to copy them.
“Once you have climate policy in place, can you implement it? Can you hold it? Can you extend it?” said Craig Segall, senior vice president of environmental group Evergreen Action.
This year’s contests come after the 2022 midterms delivered Democrats the power to govern in states like Michigan and Minnesota. Democrats used that power to pass major new climate laws, like clean electricity standards for both states.
As the election nears, Democrats say they are encouraged at how their laws have played on the campaign trail.
Climate is “a huge part of our platform,” said Michigan House Speaker Pro Tem Laurie Pohutsky, one of the Democrats who helped shepherd the state’s clean energy package into law.
Republicans have ceded almost the entire climate issue, she added, even policies that align with conservative ideas, like Michigan’s new law making it easier for landowners to get renewable energy projects permitted on their own property.
“All of these bills were party line votes — and that’s wild to me,” Pohutsky said. “Being able to kind of make that comparison and contrast has been really, really helpful.”
That’s true across the country, as state lawmakers overwhelmingly echo the narratives dominant within their own parties.
Minnesota House Majority Leader Jamie Long, the author of the state’s clean electricity standard, sees that as an advantage for Democrats. Former President Donald Trump, he said, has made it difficult for Republicans to talk about climate without alienating some segments of voters.
“These issues are on the ballot,” Long said, “and it’s certainly something that a lot of our candidates are talking about and voters care about.”
Here are the states where down-ballot races will shape climate policy.
Washington
A referendum on Washington’s cap-and-invest system has become one of this year’s most consequential ballot initiatives, with billions of dollars and the future of state climate policy in the balance.
Since it began last year, Washington’s system has raised more than $2 billion by auctioning carbon allowances for major polluters, like utilities and fuel refiners, with the number of allowances declining each year to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. That money has financed emissions-cutting projects like electrifying mass transit. Washington policymakers are also exploring linking the state’s carbon market with California and Quebec — a major expansion that other states are watching closely.
But amid voter concern about inflation, some blamed cap-and-invest for raising Washington’s gas prices.
Initiative 2117 would repeal the system. The referendum was financed by GOP megadonor Brian Heywood, a hedge fund manager who has spent millions of dollars in an effort to repeal various policies put in place by Democratic lawmakers.
The fossil fuel industry has largely stayed away from the repeal, and supporters of the cap-and-invest system — buoyed by big-dollar donors of their own, like Bill Gates — have launched a campaign to defeat the referendum.
Another Haywood-funded referendum, Initiative 2066, would block state and local governments from banning gas in buildings.
Voters will also choose a successor to outgoing Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, who over three terms made climate a central focus of state government — and in turn made Washington a hub for climate policy wonks. Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson faces Dave Reichert, a former Republican representative.
Minnesota
In 2023, Minnesota Democrats used their one-vote majority in the Legislature to pass a clean electricity standard, an overhaul of the state’s transportation system, clean energy subsidies and a bevy of other climate policies.
Dubbed by progressives the “second Minnesota miracle” (the first was the state’s education reforms a half-century ago), that flurry of policymaking helped the midwestern state’s low-profile governor leap onto the Democratic presidential ticket.
Now, the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party is working to hold onto the majority that passed those policies.
Every seat is up in the House, where the DFL holds a 70-64 majority. And there’s a special election for one seat in the Senate, which is currently split 34-34.
Climate policy has become a significant issue in the races that could determine majority control.
For instance, the Republican candidate in the state Senate race is Kathleen Fowke, a real estate agent whose husband was the CEO of the utility Xcel Energy from 2011 to 2021. She faces Ann Johnson Stewart, a former DFL state senator and civil engineer.
Those candidate backgrounds have made for a very sharp contrast, Long said.
“Climate has been a big, front-and-center topic in that district,” the state House Majority Leader said.
Michigan
Michigan is another state where, after Democrats passed major climate policies after they narrowly retook legislative control after the midterms.
Chief among them are the state’s new electricity standard requiring all power to come from “clean” sources by 2040, zoning reforms that ease the way for landowners to site renewable energy and other policies aimed at pulling in federal climate funding.
Democrats control the House by 56-54, meaning Republicans need to flip just one seat to achieve a tie that would block bills from advancing. (The Senate, which Democrats control 20-18, is not up for election this year.)
Republicans possibly got a late-breaking boost when Ford recently announced it would idle its Dearborn production of the F-150 Lighting, the company’s flagship electric truck, until 2025 due to sluggish sales.
Pohutsky, the Democratic speaker pro tem, downplayed the impact that could have on either the presidential or statehouse races.
The auto industry is no stranger to ups and downs, she said. What’s important is that voters see Democrats fighting to bring jobs to Michigan.
“People who live in those communities are at least appreciative that we did our best to get these projects here,” she said. “We’re not just letting the industry, the technology pass us by.”
North Carolina
Republicans have watched the Tar Heel State’s governorship slip further from their grasp after CNN reported that their nominee, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, called himself a “black NAZI!” and said “slavery is not bad” on a pornography site over a decade ago. Robinson has denied he made the posts.
But the current Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, has repeatedly had his climate plans steamrolled by the Legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority. The GOP Legislature has blocked the governor from adopting California’s vehicle standards and from joining the Northeast’s cap-and-trade program for electricity.
The same dynamic would await Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein if he wins the governorship — unless Republicans lose a single seat in the House.
Republicans gained their bare supermajority in 2023, when state Rep. Tricia Cotham changed parties before casting the deciding vote in favor of new abortion restrictions.
Democrats have made Cotham’s seat a top priority this year, with millions of dollars pouring into the district.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.