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The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Elizabeth Freund Larus – nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Indo-Pacific Security Initiative and professor emerita of political science and former departmental chairman of the Department of Political Science and International Affairs at the University of Mary Washington – is the 439th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”
Examine U.S. policy toward Taiwan under a Harris administration or a second-term Trump administration.
Regardless of which candidate wins the White House, both Harris and Trump will continue long-standing U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Specifically, they will adhere to the U.S. One China policy, strategic ambiguity, and the Taiwan Relations Act. All U.S. presidents have adhered to these policies since 1979, even if they initially stumbled.
For instance, as a candidate for president, Ronald Reagan indicated he might resume U.S. diplomatic relations with Taiwan; president-elect Trump broke protocol by receiving a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president. In both cases, the White House walked these back and confirmed no change to the United States’ One China policy. I expect Trump or Harris will do the same.
How might Beijing’s approach to cross-strait relations change under a new U.S. administration?
Regardless of who wins the White House, Beijing will expect the U.S. to uphold its One China policy. Trump is more likely than Harris to increase defense spending to maintain the U.S.-led order in the Asia-Pacific. Beijing will more aggressively probe Taiwan’s vulnerabilities. Expect a Harris administration to enhance engagement with China. China will probe U.S. vulnerabilities in its relationship with Taiwan to see how far Harris’ engagement agenda will go.
Analyze the impact of escalating tensions in the South China Sea on Taiwan Strait geopolitical dynamics.
Although it is located in northeast Asia, Taiwan controls Itu Aba Island in the southern part of the South China Sea. In recent years, China has built bases on nearby islands, threatening the security of Itu Aba. Also, China’s aggression against the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in the South China Sea can have spillover effects on Taiwan. If Beijing can wrest control of disputed maritime structure or even the EEZs of its maritime neighbors, it could then direct its military muscle at Taiwan and force Taipei agree to concessions on China’s terms.
Identify the top three priorities for Taipei in engaging a new U.S. administration.
The first priority is reassurances of U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security. Specifically, timely delivery of arms sales. The second priority is helping Taiwan expand its diplomatic space by getting U.S. support for Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations, even those that require statehood, such as the U.N. and its associated bodies. The third priority is to enhance trade relations. Taiwan is the United States’ seventh largest merchandise trading partner. The U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade provides a framework for strengthening U.S.-Taiwan trade and investment. Talks to remove the penalty of double taxation for businesses must go forward.
Assess how new U.S. leadership should manage rising stakes in Taiwan-U.S. relations amid escalating China-U.S. strategic competition.
U.S. engagement with China has not made its leaders any less likely to use force to unify Taiwan with China, if necessary. The next U.S. president must reinforce the U.S. position of supporting a peaceful determination of Taiwan’s status by people on both side of the Strait. Washington needs to back up words with strength by increasing naval forces, maritime assets, and bases in the region. Beijing will not be deterred by diminishing U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific.