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- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
- A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
- Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, gets 3% of the vote. That’s down from 6% in September and 9% in June.
Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.
‘It’s called suppression:’Trump criticizes Iowa Poll that has him trailing Kamala Harris
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.
A victory for Harris would be a surprising development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
More:How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
“I like her policies on reproductive health and having women choosing their own health care, and the fact that I think that she will save our democracy and follow the rule of law,” said Linda Marshall, a 79-year-old poll respondent from Cascade who has already cast her absentee ballot for Harris.
The registered Democrat said she identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for somebody else.
“I just believe that if the Republicans can decide what you do with your body, what else are they going to do to limit your choice, for women?” she said.
More:Could Iowa be shifting back to a presidential swing state? What the new Iowa Poll shows
One aspect where Trump does better than Harris: A greater share of his supporters than hers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their pick.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their choice, while another 23% say they are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
For Harris, 71% are extremely or very enthusiastic — down from 80% in September — while 29% are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
The poll shows few likely Iowa voters remain undecided, with 91% saying their minds are made up, compared with 80% in September.
That includes 96% of Harris supporters who are firm in their choice and 95% of Trump supporters.
More:How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.
Independents swing to Kamala Harris, but there’s a gender gap, Iowa Poll shows
In 2020, the Register’s Iowa Poll showed that Biden and Trump were tied among all likely voters in September. But the final poll before Election Day that year showed independents breaking for Trump, and he ultimately won by 8 percentage points over Biden.
This year, independents appear to be turning the other way toward Harris — a move fueled by a growing support among independent women.
Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.
Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.
Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.
Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September.
But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).
Mya Williams, an 18-year-old college freshman and poll respondent, said she doesn’t identify with either the Democratic or Republican parties. But she’s excited to be part of the effort to elect the country’s first Black female president.
“I like what she stands for and that she’s a female and the opposite of what Trump stands for,” Williams said. “She’s something new.”
She said she likes Harris’ stance on abortion rights, and she dislikes changes Trump made to overtime rules while he was in office.
Harris holds a small lead with likely Iowa voters who are younger than 35, 46% to 44% over Trump.
Harris’ larger support among likely voters 65 and older, who prefer her 55% to 36%, could be a boon, because older Iowans tend to be more reliable voters and show up at disproportionately higher rates.
The poll shows 62% of Iowans younger than 35 are likely voters, down from 73% in September.
But 93% of seniors say they are likely voters — even higher than the 84% who said so in September.
“If you want a horse to ride on, you want seniors, because they vote,” Selzer said.
Donald Trump holds on to base voters: Evangelicals, rural Iowans, men
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
He carries Iowa men 52% to 38% and evangelicals 73% to 20%.
Joel Funk, a 26-year-old poll respondent and Garden Grove resident, said he’s excited to cast an early ballot for Trump. The registered Republican said the economy is the biggest issue facing the country right now.
“We’ve lived through four years of him (Trump) being president, and I would say they are four of the best years economically that I have lived through,” he said. “Then we’ve gotten to see four years of the opposition, and we’ve had a lot of inflation and a lot of illegal immigration — a lot of things I would say aren’t the best for America.”
Trump leads with those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in towns (49% to 40%). But Harris carries those in cities (61% to 33%) and suburbs (59% to 36%).
Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris gets those with a college degree, 61% to 31%.
Funk, an automation engineer, dislikes that Harris was nominated without going through the usual primary process.
“They kind of put her in place of Joe Biden after the actual primary polls,” he said. “So, I don’t think she was actually chosen by the people. … And based off of interviews both of them have done, she said she would maintain the same style of policies (as Biden). Which I don’t think have been that great for us.”
Different issues drive Democrats, Republicans
The issues driving Trump supporters are very different than those driving Harris supporters, the Iowa Poll finds.
Trump voters say the issue of inflation and the economy is what they’ve been thinking about most in their decision to support him. Forty-nine percent of his supporters cite it as their most important issue.
Another 25% say immigration is driving their decision.
The top issue for Harris supporters is “the future of democracy,” with 51% citing it as their most important issue. Another 22% say it’s abortion.
“The voting agenda is different for each of those groups of supporters,” Selzer said.
Some former Donald Trump supporters move away from him in 2024
Harris holds on to the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they will support her and 0% saying they will support Trump.
But she also gets 5% of Republicans who say they will vote for her over Trump. Trump holds 89% of Republicans.
The poll shows a small universe of people who say they previously supported Trump and have now switched their vote to someone else.
Among those not supporting Trump, 16% say there was a time when they supported him, while 81% say they have never supported him. Another 3% are not sure.
Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.
“It’s not what I like about her, it’s what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn’t vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.”
He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.
“To me, the biggest part of democracy is the ability to compromise,” he said. “And with Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, there is no compromise, even within their own party.”
Of those not supporting Trump, 67% consider themselves “never Trumpers.” Another 26% say they are not “never Trumpers,” and 8% are not sure.
Among those who say they voted for Trump in 2020, 89% say they will do so again this year, and 4% will vote for Harris.
Among those who say they voted for Biden, 93% say they will now vote for Harris, and 4% will vote for Trump.
Among those who did not vote, Harris leads 47% to 44%.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,038 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 808 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.