This horse will win the Melbourne Cup

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Another heavily backed horse at the call of the card on Monday was the Ciaron Maher-trained Interpretation, with one punter standing to collect $500,000 at $21 and another looking to win $400,000 at $21.

There were a lot of small bets on Irish stayer Vauban, but the Wolfden punting outfit backed Willie Mullins’ stayer to win $500,000 at $7.50. Other notable bets were on Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator – to win $220,000 at $9.50 – and the James Cummings-trained Zardozi – to win $300,000 at $12.

The bookmakers standing at the event were Rob Waterhouse, Chris Lester, James Filgate and Lyndon Cleary.

Racing writer Danny Russell and form analyst Tim Habel comb through the Cup Day programme to deliver you their best bets for the program.

Melbourne Cup Day

First race: 10.45am Melbourne Cup: 3pm

TRACK: Good 4. RAIL: 2m. PATTERN: Slight rail movement out from the true position to 2m, normal practice to allow for the wear from Derby Day. Plenty of irrigation will be applied with no rain forecast. The northerly wind had an effect on the pattern of racing on Derby Day when it was hard work for leaders, with more benign weather on Cup day it should be fair to all.

WEATHER: Sunny, light winds, top of 27C.

Race 7: $8m Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3pm

The best lead-up race: Going on recent history, the best form emerges out of good runs in the following races – Turnbull Stakes (Buckaroo), Caulfield Cup (Buckaroo, Land Legend, Zardozi), Geelong Cup (Onesmoothoperator and Interpretation), Cox Plate (Kovalica), Bendigo Cup (Sea King), Moonee Valley Gold Cup (Okita Soushi and Sharp N Smart) and the Irish St Leger (Vauban). International horses have had the most success with one run in Australia before the Cup (Onesmoothoperator and Sea King).

Lead-up form: History says across the past decade that you should look for a horse that has run in the top three at one of its past two starts. Eliminate the rest as winning chances.

The blueprint: The past two winners – Without A Fight and Gold Trip – were good European horses who spent at least 12 months in Australia with Australian trainers before winning the Cup. So look for horses with (GB), (FR), (IRE) or (US) beside their names with decent lead-up form in Australia.

The breeding: International horses are bred to get the 3200m. There is a slight query on Buckaroo, which is sired by sprinter Fastnet Rock, while the breeding for Kovalica and Zardozi suggest they will also be doubtful at the two-mile trip.

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Barriers & weights: Across the past 10 years it has been best to draw between gates 10 and 20. Since 2014 the winning barriers have been: -11, 1, 17, 4, 19, 21, 12, 18, 13,16. The winning weight in recent years has trended towards the top of the field. The past 10 (from 2014 to 2023): 56.5kg, 53kg, 52kg, 51.5kg, 51kg, 52kg, 55.5kg, 57kg, 57.5kg, 56.5kg.

Blast from the past: James Cummings has the Melbourne Cup in his blood. His grandfather Bart was called the Cups Kings, and often ran his horses on Derby Day before the Tuesday Cup. James has followed that blueprint this year with Zardozi.

The verdict: Using the above approach, there looks to be six main chances in Tuesday’s Cup: Buckaroo, Vauban, Onesmoothoperator, Sea King, Okita Soushi and Interpretation. Out of these runners, the barrier draw has not been as kind to Sea King (gate 1) nor Buckaroo (gate 21).

Danny Russell

Melbourne Cup tips: 1st Okita Soushi (No.12), 2nd Vauban (No.1), 3rd Onesmoothoperator (No.13), 4th Buckaroo (No.2).

Russell says: The race lost the two favourites last week – Via Sistina and Jan Brueghel – suggesting it might be a weaker edition. That’s why I am looking for each-way value in 12-1 shot Okita Soushi, trained by Ciaron Maher and ridden by Jamie Kah. It will settle forward and will run out a strong 3200m. Expecting Vauban to bounce back after last year’s flop, Onesmoothoperator looks a serious threat and if Buckaroo can get the distance, he might be too good.

Russell’s Cup day best: Kinesiology (Race 5, No.3) – The Chris Waller-trained import almost made the Melbourne Cup field and if it had run, it looked a top 10 chance. He is also entered for Saturday, so follow him on whichever day he runs.

Russell’s next best: Chewing Gum (Race 8, No.8) – This Hayes runner was scratched from the Vanity on Derby Day to run in this weaker race. Flashed home for second last start.

Russell’s roughie: Okita Soushi (Race 7, No.12) – Ready to peak after two impressive build-up runs, finishing second in the Herbert Power and winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Looks good each-way value.

Cup trifecta: 1st: 1, 12, 13. 2nd: 1, 2, 12, 13, 15, 18. 3rd: 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 13, 15, 18.

Tim Habel

Melbourne Cup tips: 1st Vauban (No.1), 2nd. Onesmoothoperator (No.13), 3rd Zardozi (No.14), 4th The Map (No.23)

Habel says: Vauban was an abject failure when he started favourite in last year’s Cup but wily Irish trainer Willie Mullins is back with a new game plan. Milder weather will help and his UK group form with big weights is far superior to his rivals. Onesmoothoperator was most impressive to the eye with his Geelong Cup win, Zardozi’s Derby Day run was reminiscent of the Bart Cummings ploy of yesteryear while The Map is a lightweight long shot who will stay the trip

Habel’s five best Cup day bets

Flemington Race 2 No 8 Plymouth

Lightly raced backmarker suited by the roomy expanses of Flemington. Finished off soundly over 1600m at Caulfield, the extra 200m is ideal.

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Suggested bet: Plymouth to win

Flemington Race 5 No 7 Whisky On The Hill

Luckless in the Bendigo Cup when favourite and held up for most of the length of the straight. Promising stayer who looks well-placed.

Suggested bet: Whisky On The Hill to win

Flemington Race 6 No 3 Midnight Blue

Rejuvenated galloper, dominant win resuming in the Seymour Cup (1600m). Makes his own luck on pace, progression to 1800m is ideal.

Suggested bet: Midnight Blue each-way

Flemington  Race 7 No 1 Vauban

Flopped as $5.50 favourite last year but trainer Willie Mullins has come with a different game plan, arriving later, race fit. His Group race staying form against the UK’s best is simply superior to his rivals.

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Suggested bet: Vauban to win

Flemington Race 8 No 7 Big Swinger

Not surprising Hong Kong offers have come for the undefeated Big Swinger. Most impressive in two provincial romps, 1400m looks ideal.

Suggested bet: Big Swinger to win

THE QUADDIE

1st leg: Vauban (1) is a world class stayer in peak form. Just needs to produce near his best to win. Onesmoothoperator (13) was most impressive in his Geelong Cup win and is a winner of England’s second best handicap the Northumberland Plate at 3319m. Zardozi (14) caught the eye late in the Empire Rose on Saturday, she loves Flemington and has the Cummings polish.

Numbers: 1, 13, 14

2nd leg: Big Swinger (7) has a boom on him after strolling to successive provincial restricted race wins. Can step up to listed company. Extremely Hardys (5) and Stage ‘N’ Screen (13) are also undefeated and untapped.

Numbers: 5, 7, 13

3rd leg: Miss Aria (9) is racing extra well in similar mares group company. She will be strong late. Aviatress (5) is a last start Caulfield winner, the query is the extra 200m, Fancify (12) is value as the likely leader.

Numbers: 5, 9, 12

4th leg: Warnie (12) created a good impression on Australian debut with a strong finishing 1200m straight win. His UK form indicates 1400m will suit even better. Is It Me (14) ran on well resuming and is also suited at 1400m.

Numbers: 12, 14

$20 for  37 per cent