Dollar Weakens as US Polls Signal No Clear Leader: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — The dollar weakened as the latest raft of US presidential election polling data showed no clear advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Oil rose after OPEC+ delayed a hike in output.

The greenback fell against the yen, pound, euro, Mexican peso, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar in early trading, after strengthening Friday as Treasury yields rose. 

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Shares in Australia climbed while equity contracts for Hong Kong were slightly lower. US stock futures were steady, after gaining Friday following robust earnings from the likes of Amazon.com and Intel Corp. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, which means there will be no Treasuries trading in Asian hours.

The weakening of the greenback was a sign to some that investors may be walking back confidence in a victory for Donald Trump. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar.

“To the extent there was something to the ‘Trump trade’ last week, it is beating a bit of a retreat this morning,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.

Wall Street tried not to read too much into jobs data Friday showing US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 in October while the unemployment rate remained low. The numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike. The jobs report is the last major data point before the election.

Polls released Sunday show Harris and Trump poised for a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across the pivotal swing states that will decide the election. One poll by the Des Moines Register showed Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. This was likely an outlier, but suggested the vice president could be making inroads with White voters in the Midwest.

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In Australia, Westpac Banking Corp. increased its share buyback to A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) and reported profit that beat estimates. The shares edged lower.

Oil, Gold

West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, rose more than 1% early Monday, extending its run of daily advances to four. OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month, the second delay to its plans to revive supply as prices continue to struggle amid a fragile economic outlook.

Gold prices were stable at around $2,734 per ounce. The price of the precious metal has fallen in the prior two trading sessions after hitting a record high last week.

Data set for release in Asia Monday includes HSBC PMI manufacturing figures for India and an interest rate decision in Pakistan.

In China, officials unveiled steps to attract foreign money just days before US elections that have raised concern about the impact on the world’s second-biggest economy from a return of Donald Trump to the White House. Foreign individuals are now allowed to provide capital for publicly traded firms as strategic investors, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Commerce Ministry and four other regulators said in a statement late Friday.

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Elsewhere in China, the country’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets in Beijing Monday through Friday, as investors watch for any approval of fiscal stimulus to revive the slowing economy. 

Key events this week:

• India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
• US factory orders, Monday
• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI, Monday
• China’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets through Nov. 8, Monday
• Australia rate decision, Tuesday
• China Caixin Services PMI, Tuesday
• Indonesia GDP, Tuesday
• Philippines CPI, Tuesday
• South Korea CPI, Tuesday
• US trade, ISM Services index, Tuesday
• US Presidential Election, Tuesday
• Brazil rate decision, Wednesday
• New Zealand unemployment, Wednesday
• Poland rate decision, Wednesday
• Taiwan CPI, Wednesday
• Vietnam CPI, trade, industrial production, Wednesday
• ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Wednesday
• China trade, forex reserves, Thursday
• Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
• Mexico CPI, Thursday
• Norway rate decision, Thursday
• Peru rate decision, Thursday
• Sweden rate decision, CPI, Thursday
• UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
• US Fed rate decision, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
• Brazil inflation, Friday
• Canada employment, Friday
• Chile CPI, Friday
• Taiwan trade, Friday
• US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Friday

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Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:32 a.m. Tokyo time
• Hang Seng futures fell 0.2%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
• The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876
• The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 152.36 per dollar
• The offshore yuan rose 0.4% to 7.1126 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $68,704.91
• Ether fell 0.6% to $2,453.12

Bonds

• Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.54%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $70.53 a barrel
• Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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