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The American stock market has approximately 250 trading days a year.
Photo: freepik.com is licensed under public domain
Of which, there are around 60 trading days remaining.
At present, the market has reached more than 45 “New All-Time Highs!” in 2024.
That is essentially One-Fourth of every day. Think about that, Sportsfans.
Consider. Of every FOUR DAYS this year, ONE DAY has been another “New All-Time High!”
Are you scared sh*tless yet?
Here’s some more, diarrhea.
Layoffs Everywhere, In Every Industry, At Unprecedented Levels
Walgreen’s Pharmacy — Recently announced it will close 1200 outlets nationwide. By 2027, only two years away, ONE IN SEVEN of the neighborhood Walgreens’s Pharmacy will be closed…for good.
PPG Paints — The largest national provider of paints this month announced it would “lay off” 1800 of 6000 employees in the paints division total and close an unspecified amount of its 750 stores.
Ubisoft Video Games — Intends to cut staff by as much as FORTY PERCENT, or 8000 workers, due to poor sales and a net loss this year of $60 Million. This follows earlier lay offs of 300 employees.
Big Lots Discount Retailer — Offering clothing, furniture as well as groceries it was a community staple. This year, announced closures of 550 stores nationwide and filed for bankruptcy protection.
Dollar Tree Discount Retailer — With smaller stores in lower income areas, the outlet was vital to many rural towns or neglected city neighborhoods. Announced 600 store closing this year alone.
Boeing Aircraft — The company announced last month it would lay off 17,000 workers, or 10% of the total workforce globally. Currently there is a strike by 33,000 workers over discontinued pensions.
Stellantis Automotive — The maker of Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge, Ram and Fiat reduced staff by 47,500 of 242,000 worldwide in only five years. Another 1150 were out last month in Michigan. Year-over-year sales are down 20% with rumors ALL design will be sent to India and manufacturing to Mexico.
7-11 Convenience Stores — Last month it was announced that 444 store locations across the country would be shuttered. These serve as de facto groceries in many poorer areas of the nation.
Intel Computers — After last year agreeing to pay cuts in order to avoid lay offs, in August workers were informed 15,000, or 15% of the total workforce, would be terminated due to decline in sales.
Denny’s Restaurants — Last week announced it is closing 150 of its 1500 diners, 10% of the total. The reason is attributed to high inflation reducing the budget for families at even mid-range locales.
Applebee’s Restaurants — Last year and this year account for approximately 100 store closings nationwide.
Wendy’s Restaurants — Did you know the first three months of 2024 that 1 Wendy’s closed EVERY THREE DAYS? Well, more good news to come! Wendy’s this week announced another 150 closings.
Paramount Studios — Laid off 15% of its United States staff. Hollywood production is half what it was from this time last year as well.
UPS Mailing Services — Laid off 12,000 workers earlier this year. Recently, the company announced “another round” of lay offs without specifying the exact details of the plan.
Dennis School Uniform Company — The largest school uniform maker in the nation last month informed it was quitting after over 100 years in business. It closed 40 locations and fired 100 workers.
Schwann’s Frozen Foods — A food home delivery service, and its ubiquitous yellow trucks, in existence 72 years ceased business in September of this year and 1100 workers became unemployed.
Tupperware Containers — Filed for bankruptcy after being in business since 1946. The last American factory will move to Mexico with the entire floor of 150 workers being laid off permanently.
Frisch’s Big Boy Restaurants — At least 20 of the remaining 80 restaurants in the regional chain are slated for closing this month. The reason is given as non-payment of rent and occurred overnight.
Espirit Clothing — Following 56 years in business the company announced closing of their final 80 locations in America. Likewise, 160 stores in Belgium, Germany and Switzerland also recently closed.
True Value Hardware Stores — The business of 75 years last month declared bankruptcy. Total layoffs have not been announced but nearly 900 employees in Chicago alone are affected.
LL Flooring Lumber Company — Last month informed consumers it was closing 442 stores and selling off all assets. Around 2000 employees will be without work once this is complete.
Dropbox Computing — Will lay off 20% of its entire workforce, amounting to over 500 employees. It had earlier laid off 500 employees last year.
Volkswagen Automobiles — Earlier this year it was rumored at least 1 factory in Germany would close, while recently Union representatives have increased that to 3 factories in Germany, with tens of thousands of jobs terminated. Never before has a VW factory in Germany been closed in its history.
Ford Automobiles — The company will reportedly close 1000 dealerships across the United States following a 24% fall in sales from this time the previous year. Market share is down 10% to 5% total.
Pepsi Cola — Is shutting its final plant in the Chicago area unexpectedly, as well as implement lay offs at three other plants, for a total loss of nearly 400 employees.
Okay, Alright, Enough…
There are several things important to note here.
- Breadth — While your Humble Correspondent tried to mix things up a little bit, it should be obvious contrary to what you have been told by Controlled Media, this is decidedly NOT merely a “dining out” issue.
- Longevity — Several of these companies are in the 75 years to 100 years lifespan. That should be EXTREMELY concerning to any observer. This is not a situation of the proverbial 9 of 10 restaurants which “fail in the first year” but establishments with proven track records.
- Rippling — Any time you hear about 1 restaurant closing you should be considering the 20 direct employees…then the 50 delivery and logistics jobs associated…then the 100 suppliers and venders…all of whom will additionally be affected by the lack of business.
There is something ominous developing in America and it is all the more dire given EVERY major news outlet does little other than inform you that everything is fine and not to worry about any of it.
Quick Observations — Building and Vidya
One thing which stands out in the above are that durables such as Building Materials — PPG, LL Lumber, True Value Hardware — are among those closing doors. What does that tell you? It tells me that long-term investment spending on quality of life projects (such as your home) is cratering.
Another thing which stands out in the above are that entertainment such as Video Games — Ubisoft, among others — are included. Why is that important? Young men are the primary demographic. They thus allegedly have higher disposable income but apparently do not have the $40 to drop on games.
Stock Markets — Over-Bought, Over-Hyped & Over-Valued
Over-Buying What You Don’t Understand
First, the hysteria surrounding Artificial Intelligence is ludicrous. Ask your average “investor” what is A. I, or what it does. You’re going to get nothing but a dumbfounded stare. Yet that same buyer is pumping all his hard-earned money into vaunted A. I. “investments”. It’s the definition of euphoria.
And that is vital to understand about the American character, we love, Love, LOVE manias. Whether the latest toy…or en vogue singer (Tay-Tay!)…or tech most people do not understand.
By any rational price to earnings Nvidia ought to be trading around $90, but instead it recently was as high as $144. That is unsustainable nonsense. Obviously, A. I. has potential…but so do flying cars.
Over-Hyped By Idiots
Second, not long ago when trying to caution a young friend to be wary of the relentless march higher in equities the reply came, “The market is always at a new high.”
To which…*sigh*…how can one combat such idiocy? To make clear, an “All Time High” is exactly what it states, A HIGH of ALL TIME. The fact this market has them consistently should concern you.
Only I must be understanding to my acquaintance as seemingly every source in Controlled Media monotonously states “EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!”…unless you are of the multitudes unemployed.
Over-Valued Into Infinity and Beyond
Third, this is not confined to any one company or even sector. It is generally regarded that the entire market is over-valued by between 100% to as much as 170%. According to advisorperspectives. com, that has risen from being over-valued by 98% to 164%, last month!
Modern Wealth Management assesses that the Standard & Poor Composite is over 150% above the trendline. That makes it HIGHER RISK than during The Crash of 1929, the Dot. Com Bubble, and the Financial Crisis of 2007.
All signs are flashing blood red.
These are very serious indications of a weak consumer environment precedent a fall in viability.
Popular “Pundits” vs. Retired Executives
If you need an argument from authority to convince you, by all means…but don’t be a sap listening to electric provocateurs with an agenda to make you poor. Listen to retired Executives with history.
One such man is a former Target department store CEO, who was also a Toys R Us CEO as well. He informed a shocked Finance reporter there was substantial pain in the Real Economy which would lead to a dramatically less profitable earnings season.
When the “Finance” Host (compensated cutie with nice figure) challenged him, the man reiterated while technically consumers were spending more, due to inflation what consumers received was actually less. (This is called mathematics, Business Breasts.)
So while the government may claim a roughly 3% increase in overall sales, due to inflation the purchaser is only receiving around 1% in actual goods.
His conclusion? The historic inflation of the past year, which at one time (under the old metric) briefly reached 20% a month, has decimated buying power. This, given the relatively brief “holiday season” will further restrict the profitability of the sector. His verdict on “the recovering economy” — “It doesn’t look very good.”
Facts, children. From a man who has the acumen to know of what he is speaking.
Translation — A CRASH IS COMING
Moreover, it is not “coming next year” or “sometime in the (proverbial) Third Quarter of 2025”, but is much sooner. What you are seeing are flashing warning indicators everywhere from massive staff reductions, consumer surveys of spending and tremendous profit-taking by BILLIONAIRES.
Do you know more than Warren Buffet who sold $10 BILLION in Bank of America at average price $39.50…which is currently $42.50 per share?
Do you know more than Jensen Huong (of Nvidia) who has offloaded nearly $1 BILLION in his OWN COMPANY at an average of $119 a share…which is at this time around $144 a share?
Do you know more than essentially every company insider across every sector who has been reducing stakes to load cash reserves?
These are the richest and smartest men IN THE WORLD…and you, mainstreet investor, know more than all of them?
Final NON-Recommendations
Because I do not know your situation, I can not (and should not) give any financial advice.
Yet “Buy the dip!” is the sentiment of drips.
Markets do not “always reach new highs”.
It is certainly possible the present conditions will continue for a while longer…but not much longer.
There is a very distinct sound of music waning and millions are going to be left without a chair.
When in doubt, never trust anyone you see on Controlled Media — instead, go outside.
Is your local grocery closed…as well as your hardware store…as well as your pharmacy…
Then consider whether your real world experience is more valuable than whatever advice paid-for pundits are telling you.
Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America