man spends 45 minutes trying to figure out all the atp finals qualification scenarios

Well well well. Not only was I wrong about how basically every single match would go these last 2 days, I was also wrong about the long-shot Turin hopefuls not accepting wildcards to the 250s next week. Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune will be rounding out the top-4 seeds alongside Ruud and Rublev in Metz next week, although the plan seems to have backfired for Dimitrov since he is mathematically eliminated from finals contention after losing to Khachanov earlier today.

First, as many of you pointed out on my last post, Rune can still qualify for the ATP Finals, a possibility I completely omitted because I thought it was extremely unlikely. While it is still extremely unlikely, by accepting the last-minute Metz WC it is at least logistically possible now, so I will include it in the discussion.

Next, many people also brought up the possibility of the 9th-place Race finisher qualifying for Turin anyway, since the rumor was that Novak wouldn't play even if he qualified. Given that he is currently frolicking in the Maldives, I suspect this is more of an open secret than an unfounded rumor, so this post's analysis will be made under the assumption that Djokovic will not be playing the Finals.

With Novak out, congrats Casper Ruud, you're headed to the Finals. That still leaves Rublev, ADM, and Rune to duke it out for the final 2 spots, plus Dimitrov, Paul, and somehow Tsitsipas to fight for a year-end top 10 finish and the second Turin alternate spot.

Rune is the sole player left in Paris whose Turin contention is still up in the air, so let's focus on him. There are two things to note here: 1) Rune needs to win Paris to even have a shot at qualifying for Turin, and 2) he'll be replacing a 50-point result in Metz, so his ability to gain points next week is limited. If Rune wins Paris, that has the following implications: – Rune must at least make the Metz final to give himself a shot at qualifying, but he'll still miss the cut if ADM makes the Belgrade semis and Rublev wins his first match in Metz. – Even if Rune wins Metz, his fate is at least partially out of his hands. If Holger wins Metz but Rublev and ADM make their respective finals, he still ends up missing the cut. – Dimitrov will be locked in as the second alternate unless Paul wins Belgrade and Dimitrov loses before the Metz semis.

If Rune does not win Paris, then the Final 8 are already locked in with Rublev and ADM claiming the final 2 spots, but at least 1 of the alternate spots will still be up for grabs in the final week. If we assume Rune makes the final, then we have the following scenarios: – Grigor only misses out on being an alternate if both Rune and Paul win their respective events and he doesn't reach the semis or better in Metz. – In Metz, Rune needs to equal Paul's result in Belgrade to hold him off for the other alternate spot.

If Rune loses in the Paris SF, that has the following implications: – Grigor locks up the first Turin alternate spot, while Rune eliminates himself from qualifying as an alternate. Both can freely withdraw from Metz to get some well-earned rest, although Metz tournament director Julien Boutter probably wouldn't be too happy with both of them. – Paul needs to win at least 1 match in Belgrade to qualify as the second alternate, otherwise Tsitsipas squeaks in by a 20-point margin.

Once again, I make no guarantees any of this is actually right, but I hope you enjoyed 🙂