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In November 2004, Ukraine’s pro-Russian prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, tried to steal the country’s presidential election, triggering the Orange Revolution protests and reactions from the West. Then-U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell memorably went to the press briefing room and declared that the United States could not accept the results as legitimate. Current U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken should do the same for Georgia now.
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Saturday were marred by widespread attempts of “intimidation, coercion and pressure on voters,” according to international and domestic monitoring groups. Despite official results claiming that the incumbent government, led by the Georgian Dream party, retained a majority of seats, the election was not in line with international standards, according to independent observers.
In November 2004, Ukraine’s pro-Russian prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, tried to steal the country’s presidential election, triggering the Orange Revolution protests and reactions from the West. Then-U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell memorably went to the press briefing room and declared that the United States could not accept the results as legitimate. Current U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken should do the same for Georgia now.
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Saturday were marred by widespread attempts of “intimidation, coercion and pressure on voters,” according to international and domestic monitoring groups. Despite official results claiming that the incumbent government, led by the Georgian Dream party, retained a majority of seats, the election was not in line with international standards, according to independent observers.
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, who is not affiliated with the Georgian Dream government, went even further. “I want to say, as the [representative of the] only independent institution, that I don’t recognize these elections,” the president said in her post-election remarks. The country’s major opposition parties have similarly refused to recognize the official election results and plan to protest them.
The United States should follow the Georgian president’s lead and not recognize the results. Instead, the legitimate concerns raised by the flawed election must be addressed first. One way to incentivize proper resolution is for U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to explicitly threaten sanctions against those responsible for the crisis—starting with Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch and leader of the Georgian Dream party; Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgia’s prime minister; and those on Georgia’s central election commission.
Blinken’s statement about the elections, issued on Sunday, falls well short of this. Citing international observers, Blinken’s statement said that the election was not “free and fair,” but he avoided commenting on the legitimacy of the results themselves. Though Blinken encouraged Georgia’s political leaders to “respect the rule of law” and address any electoral deficiencies, he did not name Georgian Dream, which, as the country’s ruling party, created this mess in the first place.
No one should be surprised that Georgian Dream would make efforts to steal the election. This spring, Ivanishvili suggested that, in the event the party didn’t win, the opposition would drag the country into a devastating war with Russia. He made the absurd claim that the opposition was in thrall to its Western “patrons,” who had ordered them to ensure Georgia opened a “second front” against Russia. In August, Ivanishvili promised to make these opposition parties “pay for all the crimes against the Georgian people” by outlawing them.
Even without formally banning the opposition, Georgia has already taken on many of the hallmarks of a one-party state. Ivanishvili’s party has been in power since 2012, and it has been steadily gaining influence since then. Having established control over the parliament and the judiciary, Georgian Dream has also taken aim at the two remaining checks on its power in the last year: It has twice sought to impeach Zourabichvili and has cracked down on watchdog groups and nongovernmental organizations.
To undermine the NGOs holding it accountable, the government proposed a Russian-style foreign agents law that requires organizations receiving foreign money to register as “agents of foreign influence.” Fearing that Tbilisi—like Moscow—would use the law to marginalize and eventually shutter civil society groups and independent media, hundreds of thousands of Georgians turned out on the streets to protest. The government responded with a brutal crackdown on the peaceful demonstrations and eventually passed the law, overriding Zourabichvili’s veto of it.
The adoption of the foreign agents law and the large demonstrations against it did prompt Western capitals to finally act against Georgia’s authoritarian slide. The European Union suspended Georgia’s accession process and froze funds earmarked for government-directed programs. Citing democratic backsliding, the United States froze more than $95 million in intergovernmental assistance to Georgia and imposed a number of sanctions against some of those who were responsible for repressive measures, including the use of violence against demonstrators.
Though welcome, these actions were insufficient and ineffectual. They failed to include Ivanishvili and Kobakhidze, his hand-picked prime minister.
In a situation fraught with potential for unrest, both sides have dug in. Georgian Dream has claimed victory in the election, while the opposition has refused to recognize the results. Meanwhile, Zourabichvili called for protests in central Tbilisi starting on Oct. 28.
Georgian Dream has shown no indication that it would take criticism seriously or try to accommodate the concerns of the opposition. Kobakhidze has said that the opposition’s refusal to recognize the results amounted to a “gross violation” of the constitutional order and that Georgian Dream would form a new government without their participation.
The reports of election intimidation are serious and widespread enough to call the legitimacy of this weekend’s election results into question. Washington and its allies should not recognize this election before, as the German Federal Foreign Office suggested, all irregularities are addressed and remedied. As Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski declared, “Europe must now stand with the Georgian people.” So should the United States.
The Georgian people, who remain very pro-West and are eager to join NATO and the EU, deserve no less—just like those struggling for freedom and human rights around the world. Georgia has become the latest battleground, and it’s time for the United States to rise to the challenge.