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Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at which party might control Japan’s future government, the legality of Israel’s attack on Iran, and contested election results in Georgia.
Bitter Defeat
Japan faces an uncertain political future after the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) ruling coalition lost its outright parliamentary majority during snap elections on Sunday. The loss marked the coalition’s worst election outcome in 15 years and could spell disaster for a leader whose first order of business upon taking office on Oct. 1 was to call for a new vote.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hoped that a snap election would cement his ruling party’s mandate after public dissent over rising costs of living and an LDP funding scandal forced his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, out of power in September. Instead, in the lead-up to the election, Ishiba reversed some of his major campaign promises—such as his opposition to late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic program, known as “Abenomics”—and expressed tolerance toward LDP lawmakers implicated in the funding controversy.
Less than a month later, the LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito party, secured just 215 seats in the 465-seat lower house—down more than 60 seats for a coalition that has ruled Japan throughout almost its entire postwar history.
“This election has been very tough for us,” Ishiba admitted. The world’s fourth-largest economy now must rely on smaller parties to enter into power-sharing deals.
The biggest threat to LDP control remains the country’s main opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). The CDPJ won 148 seats on Sunday, up from 98 spots.
“Our goal was to break the ruling party’s majority, so the fact that we have achieved it is a huge accomplishment,” CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said, adding, “this is not the end, but the beginning.”
Both the LDP and CDPJ will likely turn to minority groups—such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the Japan Innovation Party, which won 28 seats and 38 seats, respectively—to obtain a majority. Both parties have historically clashed with LDP policies, and Innovation Party head Nobuyuki Baba has rejected cooperating with any LDP coalition. However, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has suggested that his party would not rule out collaboration with Ishiba’s government.
Japan has 30 days to form a governing coalition. If lawmakers fail to do so, Ishiba would rule without an absolute majority, which would make legislation difficult to pass.
The yen fell to a three-month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday amid the political uncertainty, and Japanese stocks are expected to further decline. Some analysts believe that the instability could also hinder foreign bilateral deals, arguing that it could be difficult for the next U.S. president or Japan’s neighbors in Asia to construct diplomatic partnerships with Tokyo until a new government is confirmed. Under Ishiba, Japan was working to strengthen its security ties with the United States to help counter China.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, Oct. 29: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Heads of government gather in Iceland for the three-day Nordic Council.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concludes a two-day trip to Uzbekistan.
Wednesday, Oct. 30: Botswana holds a general election.
G-20 education ministers begin a two-day conference in Brazil.
Thursday, Oct. 31: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin host their South Korean counterparts for 2+2 talks.
Belarus begins hosting the two-day Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security.
G-20 health ministers meet in Brazil.
Friday, Nov. 1: The United Nations General Assembly discusses the annual Human Rights Council report.
Sunday, Nov. 3: Moldova holds a presidential election runoff.
Monday, Nov. 4: The Interpol General Assembly begins in Glasgow, Scotland.
China’s top legislature convenes its weeklong standing committee.
What We’re Following
Israel’s attack on Iran. The Iraqi government lodged a complaint with the U.N. Security Council on Monday over Israel’s use of its airspace to attack Iran. In a letter addressed to U.N. chief António Guterres, Baghdad accused Israel of violating its sovereignty to target Iranian infrastructure last Friday as retaliation for an Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1. The U.N. Security Council convened on Monday to discuss the operation.
Friday’s attack reportedly damaged facilities at a secretive military base outside of Tehran where the International Atomic Energy Agency suspects that Iran has conducted nuclear-linked tests, as well as at another site tied to Iran’s ballistic missile program. Tehran has not acknowledged damage at either base, though local authorities said at least four Iranian soldiers and one civilian were killed.
It is unclear how Iran might respond. On Sunday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the attack “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed” but stopped short of ordering an immediate military response. Instead, Tehran emphasized the need for a cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon.
Current cease-fire negotiations are focused on an Egyptian-proposed two-day truce deal for Gaza, in which four Israeli hostages would be exchanged for some Palestinian prisoners. Regional leaders hope that a temporary pause could advance talks toward a permanent cease-fire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed interest in Egypt’s plan, but Hamas officials said they would only consider it if it was used to kick-start Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza.
Disputed vote. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban traveled to the country of Georgia on Monday to congratulate the ruling Georgian Dream party for its “overwhelming victory” in last Saturday’s parliamentary elections. His visit comes hours after Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili urged the public to protest the “stolen” vote, citing significant electoral interference. According to the country’s election commission, Georgian Dream won nearly 54 percent of the vote.
“We continue to express deep concerns about the democratic backsliding in Georgia,” said Antonio López-Istúriz White, the head of the European Parliament delegation tasked with monitoring the vote. Alleged violations include ballot-stuffing, bribery, voter intimidation, and violence near polling stations. Zourabichvili has called the vote a “Russian special operation,” alluding to Georgian Dream’s efforts to sidle closer to Moscow.
The European Union said Orban’s trip to Georgia does not represent the bloc’s position despite Hungary currently holding the rotating EU presidency. Georgia has long sought to join the EU, but Georgian Dream’s efforts to pass controversial legislation based on Russian policies have hindered its efforts. Orban’s visit further signifies Tbilisi’s pull toward Moscow, as the Hungarian prime minister has long been a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Climate failures. Countries are falling “miles short” of what’s needed to combat climate change, the U.N. warned on Monday. According to the World Meteorological Organization, all three major types of greenhouse gas emissions increased last year to record highs, with carbon dioxide levels up more than 10 percent in two decades.
“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising,” U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.”
The report comes mere weeks before Azerbaijan is set to host the 2024 U.N. climate change conference, during which governments are expected to show how they’ve worked to hit the 43 percent emissions reduction target needed by 2030 to avert the worst of global warming. As of now, though, efforts are expected to decrease emissions by just 2.6 percent by the end of the decade.
Odds and Ends
British chef Jamie Oliver may be the Sherlock Holmes of cooking controversies. On Sunday, the celebrity chef pleaded with his 10.5 million Instagram followers to look out for 48,488 pounds of stolen cheese. A con artist posing as a wholesale distributor for a major French retailer swiped nearly 1,000 wheels of the award-winning cheddar from a British artisanal cheese company earlier this month, according to the company, Neal’s Yard Dairy. “If the deal seems too gouda to be true, it probably is!” Oliver wrote. “Let’s find these cheese stealers.”