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(NewsNation) — Both the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigns are acutely aware the Latino vote could sway the presidential election.
Long-term trends indicate Latino men may be shifting to the right as Latina women remain more firmly in the Democratic camp.
However, short-term missteps, like last night’s insult by a comedian about Puerto Rico at former President Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden, could prove decisive.
Long-term trends
Based on polling, there’s good reason to believe that a shift in the Latino vote may be underway, although we won’t know if it actually materializes until we get the election results.
In 2020, President Joe Biden got 60% of the Latino vote, while Trump got 37%. In Cook’s national polling average, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently garnering 52.7% to Trump’s 42.1%.
With about 36 million Latinos eligible to vote in this election, those five additional points for Trump could make a difference.
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant who has worked on Latino voter issues for 30 years and is a co-founder of The Lincoln Project, explains the shift.
“Latino voters are quickly moving away from being a racially and ethnically motivated voter to becoming an economic populist and pocketbook voter. That, in a nutshell, is what’s happening,” he said.
The base voters of both parties are shifting. College-educated voters are moving toward Democrats, while non-college-educated voters are leaning toward the Republican Party.
Madrid says that Latinos are the largest entrants into the non-college-educated workforce, and their voting behaviors match those of their white peers in jobs like ones on an assembly line or in construction.
Education level and its impact can also be witnessed in the widening gender gap that is emerging with all voters, including Latinos. Women are becoming more Democratic, and men are turning toward the Republican Party. In the Latino community, more women are earning degrees than men.
Given Trump’s previous negative statements about immigrants in this country, including his saying that they are “poisoning the blood of our country,” many question how some Latinos could vote for him.
Madrid explains that many Latinos just don’t think Trump is talking about them.
They believe “he’s talking about the undocumented migrant, which they’re certainly not,” Madrid said.
He says the increase in third and even fourth-generation Latino voters means that many are more likely to identify as “typically American.”
This multigenerational status impacts how Latinos view immigration as well. Madrid believes that Democrats failed to understand that the Latino community sees immigration reform and border security as two different issues, not one large problem to address.
In a recent New York Times/Siena poll, 43% of Latinos support building a wall, and Madrid said that 69% supported Biden’s executive actions on asylum and shutting down the border. While Latinos have more sensitivity to immigration solutions like a pathway to citizenship, they are still concerned with border security.
Policy for Latino voters
Last week, Harris shared policy proposals highlighting how her plans for the economy and jobs will benefit Latinos, and in particular, Latino men.
The proposals include doubling the number of apprenticeships, eliminating unnecessary degree requirements for federal jobs, offering forgivable loans of up to $20,000 to entrepreneurs and doubling the number of Latino homeowners.
While the Trump campaign did not share any Latino-specific policy proposals, last week, he held a Latino roundtable.
The campaign said that “President Trump’s successful record and common-sense policies resonate with all voters, including Hispanics” and that the shift towards Trump is undeniable.
Short-term optics
Just yesterday, Harris also unveiled specific policy proposals for Puerto Rico while campaigning in Pennsylvania. If elected president, she said she would create a Puerto Rico Opportunity Economy Task Force to create thousands of jobs on the island, foster economic growth and rebuild and modernize their electric grid.
High-profile Puerto Rican artists like Jennifer Lopez, Bad Bunny and Ricky Martin all praised her plans. Collectively, they have over 300 million followers on social media.
Later in the evening, at the Trump rally in New York, one of the speakers, a comedian, called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” Trump campaign senior adviser Danielle Alvarez said, “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.”
Several Republican politicians denounced the comments as well, further evidence that this could cause trouble with voters.
There are almost six million Puerto Ricans in the United States, and nearly 500,000 live in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. In an election that is expected to be won with razor-thin margins, antagonizing any group of voters could be problematic.
Ultimately, Madrid believes that the answer to this question will determine the winner.
“Can the Democrats hold on to their U.S.-born Hispanic male base to a greater extent than Republicans can hold on to their white, college-educated female, suburban voter base? That’s the whole race,” he said.
There is just one week left to find out.