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10. Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen, Germany)
Wirtz was instrumental in guiding Bayer Leverkusen to a remarkable Bundesliga title—the first in the club’s history.
The 21-year-old scored 11 and assisted 12 in that stunning campaign, providing energy, intelligent movement, and welcome a conduit between defense and attack.
He’ll get a good handful of votes, especially from players based in Germany, but he won’t land much closer to the top three. Give him a few years, though, and he could yet take home the award.
9. Toni Kroos (Real Madrid, Germany – Retired)
It’s perhaps unfortunate that Kroos hasn’t claimed this award in his illustrious career, with his talents being looked over in favor of flashier players.
He reached a high of ninth in the voting in 2014, and it’s likely he’ll settle in a similar position in 2024 after a season that brought titles in La Liga, the Champions League, and the Supercopa de España.
The Ballon d’Or voting criteria comprises: 1) individual performances, decisive and impressive character; 2) team performances and achievements; and 3) class and fair play. It’s arguable the German ticks every single one of those boxes emphatically, but he still won’t claim one of the few awards that have eluded him in his career.
He retired in the summer of 2024 after winning four La Liga titles, three Bundesliga titles, six Champions League winners’ medals, and a host of other club trophies, in addition to the FIFA World Cup with Germany in 2014. He probably won’t be too upset to miss out on the Ballon d’Or.
8. Erling Haaland (Manchester City, Norway)
The Norwegian finished second in the voting last year, but that was after a season in which Manchester City won the treble and he bagged 36 Premier League goals.
He had to settle for just the Premier League title and 27 goals in 2023-24 (still good enough for the Premier League’s Golden Boot), but Norway’s lack of prowess on the international stage harms his chances, and he won’t be scaling those lofty heights again this time around.
Still, Haaland has every opportunity to reach the summit during his career. While he isn’t exactly involved in games all the time, there are simply no arguments regarding his hit rate. He just might need his team to help him along to the main individual award.
7. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)
Yamal had a season to remember. The now 17-year-old was influential in Spain’s Euro 2024 title victory, leading the entire tournament in assists with four—including one in the final as La Furia Roja triumphed 2-1 over England.
Few would have expected a player who was taking school exams at the time to be such a huge figure in Spain’s success. Still, he ended up playing in every single game in Germany, and he started all of them except against Albania when his team had already qualified from the group stage.
Yamal also suited up 37 times for Barcelona in La Liga, scoring five and assisting seven. That his club didn’t earn any silverware in 2023-24 harms his efforts to get higher in the individual stakes.
We’ll be seeing his name in the shortlist, and the top three, in years to come—and he’ll probably grab the Golden Boy award as a consolation.
6. Kylian Mbappé (Paris Saint-Germain/Real Madrid, France)
Mbappé finished third in the Ballon d’Or voting in 2023, and he’ll be lucky if he gets anywhere closer than sixth this year.
The Frenchman won the Ligue 1 title for the sixth time (yawn) and finished as the league’s top scorer, averaging nearly a goal a game (27 in 29). He also picked up his fourth Coupe de France winner’s medal.
Those exploits and his other impressive career achievements finally landed him a dream move to Real Madrid. Still, the accolades he earned in his final year in the French league were simply not as impressive as those who will almost certainly finish above him here.
However, now that he wears a Los Blancos jersey, he’ll probably be the favorite to win the Ballon d’Or for the next few years.
5. Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid, Spain)
Carvajal has never featured on a Ballon d’Or shortlist. He’s now made it for the first time at the age of 32, and the right-back could get within spitting distance of the top three.
The Real Madrid defender had an impressive season, scoring four and assisting three as Los Blancos won the La Liga title and scoring one in Spain’s Euro 2024-winning campaign. To put that into perspective, Carvajal has only scored 10 La Liga goals in his career, and his strike in the opening game of the Euros was his only one at international level.
On top of all that, he also bagged a goal in the Champions League final, opening the scoring as Real went on to win 2-0 against Borussia Dortmund (assisted by Toni Kroos, no less).
But, unfortunately for him, defenders typically haven’t fared well in the Ballon d’Or voting. No back-line player has picked up the title since 2006, when Fabio Cannavaro scooped up the gong.
For Carvajal, this is still a remarkable achievement, proving he’s ageing like a fine Spanish red wine.
4. Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan, Argentina)
The Argentinian finished atop Serie A’s scoring charts with 24 as Internazionale claimed the domestic league title.
He also finished as the 2024 Copa America’s top scorer with five and scored the only goal in the final, helping his country win the title.
The 27-year-old is a relentless nuisance—he presses defenders, links play and potters around midfield on occasions. While he definitely didn’t win the Serie A or Copa America title on his own, he helped drag his teams towards the summit of both competitions almost through sheer force of will.
In truth, he’s unlucky to miss out on the top three.