Written by 
Game state – factors that include whether a team is winning, drawing or losing, or down to 10 men – can dictate how a team plays in a given match. By isolating every team’s expected goals numbers based on game state, we can get a better sense of how they respond when taking the lead or falling behind.
Game state can have a large impact on the numbers from an individual match.
Arsenal – one of the best sides in the Premier League, with one of the best defences in the division – have conceded more shots (116) this season than Ipswich Town (114).
They’ve completed fewer passes than Brentford (2,830 to 2,810) and have seen less of the ball on average than Newcastle (49.5% vs 49.1%).
That is not a slight on those teams, but more an attempt to highlight how un-Arsenal like those numbers are for a team who dominate the ball and give up very few chances. On the surface, it looks like something is seriously wrong at the Emirates.
But then you remember they’ve received three red cards in eight matches and things start to make more sense. In those games – particularly against Brighton and Manchester City – Arsenal had to sit very deep, cede possession and try to grind out a result. They faced lots of shots and had none of the ball as a result.
Game state, particularly in this early stage of a season, can have a big impact on a team’s data.
But by isolating each team’s numbers by game state, we can get a truer sense of what they look to do when leading, drawing or trailing.
First, let’s establish how long each side has played in certain game states this season.
Liverpool (60%) have spent the longest amount of time leading in their games, followed by Manchester City (50%) and Tottenham (46%). Remarkably, the Reds have trailed for just 3% of their match time this campaign, which is the lowest rate of any side. Combine those two things together and you get a side who are top of the league after Matchday 8. Simple, really.
Eighth-placed Nottingham Forest are a curious one. They’ve spent over two-thirds of their games drawing, which is the highest rate in the division, while only Liverpool and Arsenal have trailed for a shorter proportion of time than their 9%.
Crystal Palace (5%) and Ipswich (4%) have led for the shortest amount of time thus far.
But rather than spending all article pointing out details from the above, let’s add another layer to this. By isolating at each side’s expected goals value by game state we can get a better sense of every team’s attacking and defensive intent.
As we do, it’s important to remember that some sides – like Palace and Ipswich when winning, or Liverpool when trailing – have spent very little match time in certain game states, and that is going to skew their numbers.
Which sides are content to play it safe while the scores are level? When leading, do teams sit back and try to hold on to what they have, or do they look to extend their lead?
First, let’s look at creating chances.
When winning, it’s Tottenham who continue to go gung-ho. Spurs have led for 46.2% of their match time so far this season, and while winning they’ve generated 2.2 expected goals per 90 and scored nine times. Both of those figures are higher than any other side in the top flight.
That fits with Ange Postecoglou’s philosophy of not changing how he wants his side to play, and Tottenham’s away game against Manchester United, where they continued to pour forward even when comfortably ahead, is a good example of that.
Again, it’s important to note that we’re just eight games into the season, and should take care when looking at some of these numbers. West Ham (2.2) have generated a similar amount of xG per 90 while leading, but we should not read too much into that given they’ve only been winning for 13% of the time this season. That equates to just over 104 minutes of action. The same can probably be said for United, who’ve led for just 14% of the time this campaign.
Similarly, given how little time both Arsenal and Liverpool have spent trailing, we probably need to throw out their xG for numbers when behind.
Brentford have been extremely proactive when the scores have been level in their games. The Bees have been notorious for their fast starts in matches, and have generated 1.9 xG per 90 when drawing. When the game has been tied, Brentford have scored the next goal on 10 occasions and gone behind just four times. Their problem has been holding on to those leads – Thomas Frank’s side have already dropped 11 points from winning positions.
One side that have been pretty cautious when ahead this season is Nottingham Forest. Despite leading in seven of their eight games, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have gone on to win just three of those. In fact, they’ve not scored a single goal when ahead, generating just 0.6 xG per 90 when leading this season.
Instead, they’ve chosen to lean on their defence to see out games.
Just three sides (Liverpool, Aston Villa and Manchester City) have conceded less than Forest’s 8.8 xG overall this season, and, as the next graphic shows, they’ve given up just 0.8 xG per 90 when ahead. They’ve defensively been very solid when leading, even if they’ve relinquished four of the leads they’ve had thus far.
On the flip side, Southampton have remained very positive when ahead. They’ve generated chances worth 1.7 xG per 90 on average while leading in games against Ipswich and Leicester – (they didn’t have a shot while leading away at Arsenal.)
It’s all well and good being positive while leading, but as shown below, they’ve conceded chances worth 2.5 xG while ahead; only Ipswich have a more porous record than that.
Southampton have dropped points in all three of the games they’ve led in this season, losing two of those, with the recent surrendering of a two-goal lead against Leicester their most damaging defeat so far. Should Southampton adapt their style of play when leading to play more risk-averse football? It’s a discussion we’ve had on these pages before.
Manchester United may have only led for 14% of game time this season, but in that very small sample size, they’ve been rock solid. In the 108 minutes they’ve led in games against Fulham, Southampton and Brentford they’ve conceded a grand total of three shots.
Liverpool are the only side to have conceded under 1.0 xG in each of the three game states. Regardless of whether they are winning, losing or drawing in a match, they’ve been exceptional in defence. Arne Slot’s men have conceded just three time in eight matches.
We can then combine the previous two graphics (xG for and xG against) into one by looking at xG difference by game state. This shows us the positive (or negative) difference between how many chances a team is taking and conceding, split by game state.
Spurs truly come alive when they go behind. Their xG difference when trailing of +2.3 is way in front of any other side. Postecoglou’s men responded very well to going behind in games against Brentford and West Ham, turning 1-0 deficits into 3-1 and 4-1 wins, and they generated a slew of chances while chasing the game away at Newcastle that they squandered.
Liverpool have really set the tone when their games have been level. Their positive xG difference of +1.9 per 90 when drawing shows how proactive they’ve been in trying to break the deadlock. They’ve had 43 shots and conceded just eight when the scores are level, and even in their solitary defeat this season to Forest, they still outshot the visitors by 11 to four before Callum Hudson-Odoi scored the winner.
Perhaps understandably, Leicester have been very reticent to push forward and build on a lead. They were ahead for long periods of their games against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, and although they emerged from those matches with four points, they were outshot 33 to 11 while in the lead. Jean-Phillippe Mateta scored a late equaliser for Palace, and Bournemouth arguably deserved more from their 1-0 loss.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.