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The new NBA season gets underway on Tuesday night following a quieter summer than usual.
Star trades and free agency moves have been limited by tougher salary cap rules. That’s left the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder tipped to run away with their respective conferences.
There are a couple of interesting alternatives and a host of other betting markets for the regular season, which I’ve previewed below.
Dramatic trade could be a win-win
One of the few major offseason trades saw the New York Knicks acquire Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and salary filler. Incredibly, none of those three seemed happy with the switch.
The fallout included Twitter attention-seeking, a moody press conference and an uncomfortable preseason reunion in New York. However, the deal could work out for both sides.
The deal addressed weaknesses for both, filling the Knicks’ opening at centre and adding depth for the Timberwolves.
It’s been a year of change in New York, with OG Anunoby joining in late December. They made a big swing to land Brooklyn’s Mikal Bridges too. That’s left the Knicks with a starting lineup packed with enough defensive versatility and shooting threat to challenge the Celtics.
While depth is an issue, coach Tom Thibodeau is happy to run his starters into the ground. The fear is that they’ll be running on fumes again by May, but the Knicks can chase Boston down in the regular season.
Thibodeau pushed his charges to the wire to take the second seed last season. Any post-championship slide for the Celtics will be exposed by the Knicks. No defending champion has topped their conference the following season since 2019, so New York is a tempting shot to top the East.
Minnesota aren’t as well placed to chase down the Thunder, but Randle’s contract is a great trade chip to use midseason. Their bench depth makes them a threat in the playoffs and they seem like the most tempting outright option among the chasing pack at 10/1.
While it’s a shame that their roster from last season’s Western Conference finals run was broken up, this reshuffle should help them long-term.
Anthony Edwards is now their undoubted star man, following a breakout run in the playoffs. He averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He’s been hailed as the future of the league, pushed to the forefront of Netflix’s recent NBA documentary.
Edwards carrying Minnesota after KAT’s departure fuels an MVP narrative in an open year. Nikola Jokic isn’t likely to add to his three wins in four seasons, opening the door for someone new with Joel Embiid unlikely to meet the minimum games requirement.
Edwards was seventh in the voting this year and his profile has had a huge boost since. The Timberwolves are a must-watch team and Edwards is the main attraction. He has the swagger to carry an MVP push and offers great value with the league desperate for a new American superstar.
Vets primed for bounce-back season
One key theme ahead of the new season is the hype around some of the young teams that impressed last season. However, there’s something to be said about teams that likely hit rock bottom last year.
The Miami Heat had a down year and a quiet offseason means many are expecting them to regress further. However, they finished one win outside the top six in spite of their struggles.
The build-up to this season has seen them lay down the law with top-earner Jimmy Butler, who underperformed in a season where he missed too many games. The early signs are that the Heat are refocused, with Butler displaying plenty of intensity in preseason, having skipped those fixtures in recent years.
Miami routinely pull rabbits out of hats with their player development, so Caleb Martin’s departure shouldn’t hurt them. They shouldn’t have such a difficult, injury-hit season this time around, so back them to return to the top six.
The Golden State Warriors also had a down year, but they were just three wins from sixth and five out of the top four. The drama surrounding Klay Thompson’s contract weighed them down. They’ve turned his salary into a few interesting role players.
Pairing Buddy Hield with Steph Curry should see the Warriors raining down threes. They need Aaron Wiggins to improve, but Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski can continue their growth and push the Warriors higher.
Regular season awards predictions
Sixth Man of the Year: Donte DiVincenzo @ 10/1
The Sixth Man of the Year award has been dominated by Shooting Guards in recent years, with 11 of the last 13 winners classed in that position. Any guy that can post good offensive numbers off the bench can contend and Donte DiVincenzo fits that description.
He posted a career-high 15.5 points per game last season, starting 63 times for the Knicks. He finds himself behind Edwards and Mike Conley in the rotation after his trade to Minnesota, but he’s an adept stand-in for both.
He made 42.5% of his threes in the playoffs last term and that fine form can make him a key contributor off the bench for the Timberwolves.
Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra @ 16/1
There’s little argument that Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA, but he’s yet to win this award. Plenty of factors have gone into that, but the Miami Heat coach is due a win sooner rather than later.
He’s a big price at 16/1, largely due to lower expectations for the Heat this season. However, I’ve already backed them for a bounce-back year and that would put him in the frame. Spoelstra just finished sixth in the voting after a down year, so there’s likely an appetite to finally hand him this trophy.
The eight coaches above him in the betting would need to do a lot to exceed expectations given the parity around the league. Miami can silence their doubters and the high esteem Spoelstra is held in could swing it for him.
Rookie of the Year: Dalton Knecht @ 11/1
The Rookie of the Year race is wide open, with the ninth overall pick Zach Edey leading the betting. The 2024 draft class has been notoriously written off, but that offers some betting value.
11/1 shot Dalton Knecht is my pick, making him the first Laker to win the award since the franchise moved to LA. The sharpshooter made 38.3% of his threes in college, including a 39.7% rate in his third and final year.
This Lakers roster is desperate for some perimeter threat and new coach JJ Reddick can teach him every trick in the book. LeBron James thrives with shooters around him and playing with a superstar opens space for Knecht to shine.
The 23-year-old won Newcomer and Player of the Year in his conference last season. He looks perfectly suited to this Lakers side and their prestige could tip the award in his favour with no genuine superstar potential in this class.
173/1 Division Winners Accumulator
Knicks, Heat, Bucks, Thunder, Suns, Mavs @ 173/1
The Knicks and Heat appeal in their respective divisions, while the Thunder have a regular season edge over a Timberwolves side awaiting a mid-season tweak.
The Milwaukee Bucks suffered everything that could go wrong last season and they still ended up third in the East. Some decent offseason additions should see them get stronger.
The Dallas Mavericks went to the NBA Finals and their Southwest rivals lack the consistency to match them. Finally, the Phoenix Suns added Mike Budenholzer, who has a stellar regular season record. Adding a true Point Guard to their Big Three should bring a top-four finish in the West.
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