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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised significant concerns about the global public debt situation as it prepares for its annual meetings in Washington D.C. starting October 21, 2024. The IMF projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2024, reaching approximately 93% of global GDP.
This milestone marks a historic high, surpassing the previous peak of 99% seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF forecasts that global public debt will approach 100% of GDP by 2030, representing a 10 percentage point increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Several factors contribute to this rapid increase in global public debt. These include political pressure for increased spending, aging populations necessitating higher social spending, slow economic growth, and potential underestimation of future debt levels.
The IMF has highlighted specific concerns for major economies. The United States faces significant fiscal challenges, with a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2024. China’s debt situation, along with that of the U.S., could potentially generate spillover effects that might increase borrowing costs globally.
Trillion-Dollar Debt Crisis Looms as IMF Annual Meetings Start on Monday
Despite these debt concerns, the global economy has shown resilience in 2024. Global real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. Inflation is projected to ease to 6.6% in 2024 and further moderate to 3.9% in 2025.
The IMF is urging governments to take action to address these debt concerns. They recommend implementing fiscal consolidation measures, designing careful fiscal adjustments, broadening tax bases, and making tax systems more progressive.
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The IMF warns that the actual debt situation could be worse than projected. In a severely adverse scenario, global public debt could reach 115% of GDP within three years, nearly 20 percentage points higher than current projections.
As the world’s financial leaders gather in Washington, the message from the IMF is clear: urgent action is needed to address the growing global debt burden and its potential consequences for economic stability and growth.
Trillion-Dollar Debt Crisis Looms as IMF Annual Meetings Start on Monday