Hong Kong’s ‘low-altitude economy’ – the next big thing?

I obviously haven’t been keeping up with the local economic scene, because it came as a complete surprise to discover that the key to our future prosperity was something called the “low-altitude economy.”

Apparently this idea has been around for some time. It was mentioned in the national government’s work report and subsequently endorsed (surprise!) by our chief executive. What is it?

I wondered if it was one of those metaphors dear to economists, like “inflation” or “depression.” But it doesn’t sound very inspiring: a bit too reminiscent of a low-rent flat, or a low-energy boyfriend.

Or was it one of those “stories” broadcast in an attempt to put new life in a sagging stock market. The low-altitude economy is the Next Big Thing; get your bets on it now.

Apparently neither. The low-altitude bit is a literal description of where it will all happen. Of course, as tends to happen with ideas like this there is quite a lot of variation depending on whose version you are reading. But the basic idea is that low-altitude flight, mainly by variations on the drone, will increase massively, providing lots of business opportunities.

As noted, quite how high the low altitude goes ranges from 1,000 metres (Mary Ma in The Standard) through 3,000 metres (Ken Ip in China Daily) to 6,000 metres (The Standard’s “Staff Reporter”).

What will go on in this airspace also varies. A lot of people are already using drones as a way to get cameras of various kinds up to places you can’t reach with a stepladder. This is indisputably a growth area and will create a flourishing continuing demand for smallish drones.

More questionably, at least in the Hong Kong context, there is a lot of interest in the idea of drones making deliveries. There have been some successful early experiments, apparently, but these have been in places where most people live in houses with yards or gardens.

The idea would work for me – we have a small garden into which a well-intentioned drone could drop – but I do wonder how anything more valuable than the groceries will be delivered to people who live in high-rise flats. Will they be expected to leave a window open?

One must also wonder about the safety implications of having load-carrying drones buzzing around the place, possibly colliding with each other or with large birds, and producing results reminiscent of those interesting Ukrainian videos in which a drone drops a small bomb on a Russian tank.

For a really alarming prospect, though, there is the matter of drones carrying people. There is no particular technical difficulty in this but turning it into a widespread activity which is going to move the economic needle raises some interesting questions.

To start with, who will steer? It seems you can now buy a person-carrying drone which can easily be piloted by anyone who can ride a bike. Fortunately they are still very expensive. But the films you see of people using them generally feature landscapes which are either flat, deserted, or both. It does look like serious fun, though.

Talk of air taxis inspires the rather worrying thought of Hong Kong taxi drivers being converted into pilots. Considering the way taxi drivers drive – I did this for a while a long time ago and haste is unavoidable because time is money and the busy periods are quite short – you might not wish to see a flying version.

It seems the preferred solution to this in China is to have the drone fly itself. This means you are in effect entrusting your life to a computer. Are you OK with that? Our government says that safety will have to be considered, naturally, but it will no doubt come under pressure from those who think, as one writer put it, that “cautious attitudes about safety could… be restricting growth.”

I expect there will be lots of money to be made from making the drones, but I am not convinced that Hong Kong is going to be a happy spot for implementing their use on an industrial scale. Apart from the difficulties created by mountains and high-rise buildings, there is also the question of avoiding the old-fashioned high-altitude economy when it comes in to land.

Looking on the bright side, it is enchanting that part of China’s contribution to the low-altitude economy is the construction of a new airship, a technology which most people find attractive, if a bit nostalgic.

Personally I’ll give the self-driving drone a miss. But if you’re offering a ride in an airship…

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