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Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Ukraine’s plan to end the war against Russia, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, and Poland’s new migration strategy.
‘Peace Through Strength’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled his “victory plan” to win the war against Russia on Wednesday while delivering his first address to parliament this year. He advocated for a “peace through strength” strategy that would be largely dependent on foreign support, and he criticized how often Kyiv’s partners mention “negotiations” without using the word “justice.”
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Ukraine’s plan to end the war against Russia, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, and Poland’s new migration strategy.
‘Peace Through Strength’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled his “victory plan” to win the war against Russia on Wednesday while delivering his first address to parliament this year. He advocated for a “peace through strength” strategy that would be largely dependent on foreign support, and he criticized how often Kyiv’s partners mention “negotiations” without using the word “justice.”
Zelensky’s plan centers on five main goals that he argues are needed to force the Kremlin to negotiate in good faith. At the top of the list, Zelensky called on NATO to issue an unconditional invite for Ukraine to immediately join the alliance. Kyiv has engaged in regular talks to join the bloc but has yet to be formally invited. Some key members, most notably the United States, insist that the war with Russia must end before Ukraine can join the alliance.
“It is my firm belief that one day Ukraine will be a member of NATO, and I will applaud when that day comes,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday, adding, “It is up to the allies to discuss among themselves how to take it forward.”
Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said on Wednesday that lawmakers will prioritize bills needed to implement Zelensky’s victory plan, which would include adopting a series of laws required to help Ukraine meet NATO’s standards for membership.
The plan’s second point involves Kyiv’s allies strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Zelensky said Ukraine’s partners must allow Kyiv to use foreign-supplied weapons for strikes deep inside Russian territory, which many countries have pushed back against for fear of direct Russian retaliation. And Zelensky urged Ukraine’s Eastern European neighbors to shoot down Russian missiles and drones from their own territory to help protect Ukraine’s skies.
There are three other elements of Zelensky’s victory plan: establishing a “comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” inside Ukraine to help protect against Russian threats; signing agreements with foreign partners to allow joint investment in Ukraine’s natural resources, including uranium, titanium, lithium, and graphite; and ensuring that Ukrainian troops enhance NATO security and replace some U.S. forces stationed in Europe. Zelensky said three other “secret annexes” to his plan exist, including one related to his deterrence strategy.
“Together with our partners, we must change the circumstances so that the war ends,” Zelensky said. The president’s speech primarily aimed at rallying support from Ukraine’s public at a time when the country is losing ground to Russian troops in the northeast and Moscow’s targeting of Kyiv’s energy infrastructure has caused widespread blackouts. On Tuesday, Ukrainian officials ordered mandatory evacuations in Kupiansk as Russian forces close in on the city.
“If we start moving on this victory plan now, we may be able to end the war by next year at the latest,” Zelensky said.
Yet not everyone is behind Zelensky’s plan. Some opposition lawmakers called the proposal unrealistic, stressing how dependent it makes Ukraine on other countries. “According to the plan, it seems that someone has to do everything for us,” said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of Ukraine’s European Solidarity party.
Russia condemned Zelensky’s proposal. Kyiv needs to “sober up and realize the reasons that led to this conflict,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accusing Zelensky of “pushing NATO into direct conflict with our country.”
The Ukrainian president will travel to Brussels on Thursday to present his plan to European Union leaders; he met with U.S. President Joe Biden in late September to discuss the proposal, and on Wednesday, Biden announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine.
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What We’re Following
Israel’s Lebanon offensive. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday killed at least 16 people, including the mayor of Nabatieh. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati accused Israel of intentionally targeting the city’s municipal council meeting, which he said was discussing local relief efforts at the time. Wednesday’s strike was the most significant Israeli attack on a Lebanese state building since Israel expanded its offensive against Hezbollah last month.
On Tuesday, the United States said it opposes the scope of Israel’s recent bombing campaign in Beirut, even as the offensive grows across southern Lebanon. Israeli operations in the country have killed more than 1,400 people and displaced more than 1.3 million others in recent weeks. Israeli military evacuation orders now apply to more than 25 percent of Lebanon, including Nabatieh. Many of the airstrikes have centered on the capital of Beirut, while the ground offensive has focused largely on the southern portion of the country, where Hezbollah holds substantial de facto control. Israeli attacks have also hit United Nations peacekeepers stationed in the area. Israel maintains that it only targets sites linked to Hezbollah militants.
The U.N. human rights office called on Tuesday for an investigation into an Israeli airstrike the day before that killed at least 21 people in a residential building in northern Lebanon. Locals report that most of those killed were women and children. In the nearby northern city of Akkar on Wednesday, Lebanon’s Public Health Ministry confirmed the first case of cholera in the country this year. Authorities fear that prolonged conflict and mass displacement could worsen disease conditions.
New asylum restrictions. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk vowed on Wednesday to better protect his country’s border by implementing a new migration strategy. Tusk has proposed temporarily suspending the right to seek asylum for those coming from neighboring Belarus, accusing Russia and Belarus of deliberately sending migrants from the Middle East and Africa to the Polish border to destabilize the European country. Minsk and Moscow deny these allegations.
Tusk hopes the proposal will appeal to Polish voters ahead of next year’s presidential election. Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, thousands of people have crossed from Belarus into Poland, some of whom have reportedly been directed by Belarusian authorities to do so. Warsaw has repeatedly accused Minsk of “weaponizing” migration to harm the EU and help Moscow.
The Polish prime minister will meet with other European leaders in Brussels on Thursday to discuss his proposal. However, he will not have Polish President Andrzej Duda’s support. Duda has argued that the policy could harm Belarusian dissidents fleeing oppression, and rights groups such as Amnesty International have joined his side, calling such legislation “flagrantly unlawful.” The right to seek asylum is enshrined in international law.
China’s Taiwan stance. Beijing reiterated its sovereignty claims over Taiwan on Wednesday after China staged large-scale military drills around the island earlier in the week. “We are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and endeavor, but we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force,” said Chen Binhua, the spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.
On Monday, Chinese forces participated in air and sea drills around the island as a warning to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te after he made a National Day speech last week that Beijing perceived as promoting Taiwanese independence. Authorities recorded a record 125 Chinese aircraft as well as 17 naval vessels and 17 coast guard ships—evidence of Beijing’s efforts to hone its ability to impose a blockade around Taipei. The following day, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Dongshan Island to commemorate when Beijing defeated a Taiwanese invasion attempt there in 1953.
Odds and Ends
Just a few blocks from where FP’s World Brief writer is currently writing the newsletter, the U.S. Smithsonian Zoo welcomed two giant pandas from China. Bao Li and Qing Bao, both 3 years old, flew to the United States on Tuesday to begin their 10-year loan—marking the first time in 24 years that a new set of furry diplomats has arrived in Washington. Those hoping to say hello right away will have to be patient, though: Visitors won’t be able to greet the pandas until January.
If you’re wondering why the zoo’s former black-and-white inhabitants (Mei Xiang, Tian Tian, and Xiao Qi Ji) returned to Beijing last November, check out FP’s panda diplomacy analysis.