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Secretary of State Antony Blinken is considering a post-war plan for Gaza based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates that would be presented after the presidential election, U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: Several officials in the White House and State Department are concerned the plan would marginalize Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, which is what Israel and the UAE are pushing for in the immediate term.
- But with no deal in sight to release the hostages held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a “day-after” plan could be a potentially positive part of the Biden administration’s legacy surrounding the conflict.
- Axios spoke to one dozen U.S., Israeli, Palestinian and Emirati officials with knowledge of the issue for this story.
- Some in the State Department, including Blinken, think a hostage and ceasefire deal doesn’t seem possible before the end of the Biden administration, and therefore the Israeli-Emirati plan is a possible “Plan B” that could start drawing a path out of the war, U.S. officials say.
- But other officials inside the State Department say it is an ill-advised concept that only serves Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interests and is bound to be rejected by the Palestinians and fail.
Catch up quick: The Biden administration, Israel and the UAE have been discussing different ideas for possible plans for months, U.S., Israeli and Emirati officials said.
- Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was also involved in the discussions and raised some of the original ideas for the plan, the officials said.
Last July, President Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and State Department counselor Tom Sullivan met in Abu Dhabi with Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu, and with the Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed (ABZ) to discuss the issue.
- A day before that meeting the Emiratis presented their proposal in an op-ed by ABZ’s special envoy Lana Nusseibeh.
- The plan called for deploying a temporary international mission to Gaza that would deliver humanitarian aid, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for governance.
- The Emiratis suggested they would send soldiers to Gaza as part of an international force.
But, they conditioned it on receiving a formal invitation from the Palestinian Authority after it undergoes “meaningful reforms and [is] led by a new prime minister who is empowered and independent.”
- In practice, the Emiratis wanted to marginalize Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, who they say is corrupt and dysfunctional, and strip him of any executive authority.
- They also wanted to replace current Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa, who they consider an Abbas loyalist.
Another principle in the Emirati plan was that it would be based on political leaders agreeing on the vision of a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.
- Israeli officials say Netanyahu liked many parts of the Emirati plan but opposes the more politically-charged aspects, particularly the involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the two-state solution vision.
State of play: In recent weeks, the discussions about the Israeli-Emirati plan got a renewed push, the officials said.
- At the end of September, Dermer and ABZ met separately with Blinken, who is in charge of the issue within the Biden administration, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
- The officials said both ABZ and Dermer asked Blinken to help them bridge the remaining gaps between Israel and the UAE regarding the plan and then endorse it — or even turn it into a U.S. plan that would be presented after the November election.
- The Israeli and Emirati embassies in Washington, DC declined to comment.
Friction points: One remaining gap surrounds a new idea from the Emiratis that the plan include reopening the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem as a gesture to the Palestinians and a way to show the U.S. is invested in the plan and is leading the process.
- The Israelis vehemently oppose the idea, U.S. officials say.
- The Israelis are also still opposed to any mention of a two-state solution.
But the main gap between Israel and the UAE is about the exact role of the Palestinian Authority.
- The UAE wants the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority to appoint a Palestinian figure to help lead the transition in Gaza, Emirati officials said.
- The Israelis would only consider any possible role for the Palestinian Authority in the long term, U.S. and Israeli officials said.
- Two senior State Department officials told Axios if Blinken presents a plan, it will incorporate the Israel and Emirati ideas as well as U.S. ideas with the goal of getting broader consensus in the region for the plan.
- “We will not support a day-after plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. How that role could look like is still under discussion,” one State Department official said.
Behind the scenes: According to U.S. officials, the plan has become a highly contentious issue inside the State Department. It is a source of fierce internal fighting and debate between Blinken’s advisers and, in some cases, between the Secretary of State himself and some of the most senior U.S. diplomats.
- U.S. officials say one of the main supporters of the Israeli-Emirati plan is Jaime Rubin, who has been serving as Blinken’s adviser. In recent months, Rubin has been working on the Gaza day-after issue for Blinken and travelled with him to Israel in August, the officials said.
- “The White House doesn’t like him and many people in the State Department who deal with this issue don’t take him seriously, but he is a voice on this and he is close to Blinken,” a U.S. official told Axios.
- Rubin declined to comment for this story. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller also declined to comment.
What they’re saying: A senior Palestinian Authority official told Axios the Palestinian Authority is highly suspicious of the Israeli-Emirati plan and stressed he doesn’t believe it could get support in the region.
- “Playing with Gaza governance is too dangerous. Any mistake could kill the Palestinian national project,” he said, adding that any Palestinian figure who would be in charge of Gaza independently of the Palestinian Authority or not as part of a national consensus would not have any legitimacy.