BC Election 2024: Conservatives promise more spending, economic growth

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B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad unveiled his party’s full platform on Tuesday, laying out $2.3 billion in additional spending on priorities such as health care and infrastructure, along with $4 billion in tax cuts.

Flanked by a number of his candidates at the UBC Rose Garden, Rustad said the elimination of the carbon tax would return $3 billion to British Columbians in 2025, while the so-called “Rustad Rebate” on rent and mortgage payments would dole out another $900 million in 2026.

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The Conservative plan projects the provincial deficit would balloon to $11 billion annually by 2026-27, but Rustad renewed his promise to balance the books within eight years through a combination of economic growth and reductions in the size of government.

Some political observers liked the Conservative’s plan to cut red tape to foster economic growth, but others questioned whether the party’s figures are feasible.

Rustad also promised to reduce the small business tax to one per cent, providing relief of $150 million to small employers. The party said it hopes to eventually eliminate the tax.

He said a Conservative government would spend an additional $1.4 billion in health care over the first two years of its mandate while developing a new funding model and paying for patients to receive private treatment when necessary.

It would also spend $1 billion annually on civic infrastructure renewal and $580 million in 2026 and 2027 to keep TransLink fully funded.

The costs of large-scale infrastructure projects, such as Rustad’s promise to build a new children’s hospital in Surrey, were not included in the plan. Neither was the cost of potential replacement of the Massey Tunnel and Ironworkers Memorial Bridge.

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Rustad said his plans would be funded by boosting economic growth and cutting the size of government bureaucracy.

The Conservatives say their plan would increase GDP growth to 5.4 per cent by 2030, bringing in an additional $10.4 billion annually in provincial revenues.

“Let’s take mining, for example. There’s 16 mines, 17 mines that are permitted, that are ready to go in this province. That’s a $38 billion investment that would add over $800 billion to British Columbia’s GDP, and once those mines are up and running, that alone will bring in an additional $4.1 billion, $4.2 billion in direct revenue,” said Rustad.

“There’s lots of places to be able to expand and grow our economy, to get those kind of revenues that we need to see.”

In contrast, the NDP are promising additional spending of $2.9 billion, including a grocery rebate that will give the average household $1,000, but also a $1.5 billion decrease in government revenue through its own promised tax cut.

The NDP’s plan proposes to reduce the provincial deficit — which is just under $9 billion — to $7.6 billion in 2026-27. Unlike Rustad, they have not promised to fully balance the budget.

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The Greens, meanwhile, have promised $8 billion in new spending in the first year, offset by $9 billion in tax increases.

In terms of the platform promises themselves, there was little new Tuesday with the Conservatives having already released all its marquee promises in individual announcements over the course of the campaign.

Allie Blades, a Conservative strategist, said this was done to get voter’s attention and place a larger focus on individual policies, while the NDP and Green’s announced their entire platform at once.

“I suspect that the Conservatives, in launching their policy day by day, they could create thematic days to target certain voters,” she said.

Rustad did acknowledge there have been some missteps, however, as it was discovered the Conservatives changed the wording for its education policy after it was released Monday.

For example, the promise to “remove classroom material that instils guilt based on ethnicity, nationality or religion” was changed to “ideological neutrality of classroom materials.” And the commitment to inform teachers of “any significant ideations” was limited to “suicidal ideations.”

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“Unfortunately, when the release went out, somebody had grabbed an old version from many weeks ago,” said Rustad. “When we realized the error, we pulled that down and put the actual education platform out.”

The NDP were quick to jump on several aspects of the platform, including the $1.4 billion in new health-care spending the Conservatives say they plan over the next two years, alleging they copied already scheduled increases from the NDP’s first quarterly report released in September.

That financial update shows the government was already set to increase spending over the next two years by the same amount as Rustad’s party.

The Greens, meanwhile, accused the Conservatives of “magical thinking” with its belief it can achieve a 5.4 per cent growth rate.

Leader Sonia Furstenau said the Conservative plan ignores the crisis of poverty and inequality in B.C.

Andrey Pavlov, a Simon Fraser University finance professor, acknowledged the 5.4 per cent growth projection is ambitious but argued it could be achievable if the right measures are taken.

“I think B.C. has a lot going for us, and the reason is we have a lot of resources, certainly per capita, and we have a highly educated workforce. We have reasonable infrastructure, not great, but reasonable, and we have reasonable institutions,” he said.

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“So when we put all those things together, there’s absolutely no reason why British Columbia can’t be the richest, not just province in Canada, but among the very richest areas in the world.”

Andy Yan, director of the City Program at SFU, said it is fine to talk about potential but believes the increase in spending combined with the large loss of revenue from tax cuts doesn’t add up.

He also pointed to reports by TD that predicts Canada’s economy will average around 1.8 per cent growth in the long run, far below the Conservative’s predicted growth rate of 5.4 per cent and even the NDP’s projection of 3.1 per cent growth.

“You look at some of these spending programs, they’re not austere. I mean, in certain ways, they actually read like what you would think would be NDP measures,” he said. “You’re at the restaurant making the big orders, but are you going to be there when it is time to pay the bills.”

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