Michael Higgins: Liberal rebels will need steel spines to oust Trudeau

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Could the season of Thanksgiving see the fall of Justin Trudeau?

Unlikely, but there will be no Happy Thanksgiving for the prime minister as he contemplates rebellious Liberal MPs trying to engineer a palace coup.

Such news may not surprise Trudeau, but the fact that it is now public is a starting gun. It is at times such as these that Sherlock Holmes tells trusty sidekick Watson, “The game’s afoot.”

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As Trudeau returns from a trip to Asia, he is likely to hunker down with his faithful entourage to plot strategy while plotting of another kind will be on the minds of the Gang of 20 (the approximate number of Liberal MPs said to have signed a document in support of replacing the prime minister before the next election.)

The Toronto Star first reported on Friday that “anxious Liberals” were worried about the state of the party under Trudeau. People were saying on the doorstep that “your guy’s gotta go,” while one party source said two dozen sitting MPs were deciding whether to run again at the next election.

Fast exits and furry rodents are all associated with sinking ships.

The Star quoted Wayne Long, the only serving Liberal so far to publicly call for Trudeau to quit as leader, saying, “The status quo is leading us to obliteration.”

Party leaders never want to hear the word obliteration when it refers to their own electoral fortunes and certainly not when it comes from the mouth of one of their own MPs.

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But Trudeau probably isn’t even listening to the shrill chorus of the caucus. Why now, after nine years, should he start listening to his members?

Meanwhile, the CBC reported that Liberal MPs were meeting in rooms across Parliament Hill to sign a document that pledged them to call on Trudeau to resign. They were signing their own names and “in ink”, said CBC’s David Cochrane, making it sound like a Faustian bargain rather than a parliamentary coup.

Perhaps it is?

The document, it was reported, had spilled onto two pages and at least 20 MPs had signed.

Trudeau’s first response is likely to attack these reports, as well as send out Cabinet ministers, to reiterate that he is going nowhere. This is a time-honoured tactic by those under threat and used only very recently by a leader down south, also on a holiday occasion.

After a shaky debate with rival Donald Trump that raised questions about his mental abilities, U.S. President Joe Biden used Fourth of July celebrations to declare, “I’m not going anywhere.”

It was a strong statement, unequivocal and unapologetic. It meant nothing.

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Weeks later, Biden ended his campaign to seek reelection as president. Apparently, he was going somewhere.

If offence is the best defence, Trudeau is likely to adopt the, “I’m not going anywhere” strategy.

The prime minister’s defensive vanguard was led at the weekend by Trade Minister Mary Ng who expressed her disappointment that overwrought colleagues were overly concerned with overthrowing their leader. It’s not what Canadians want, she said.

Polls, however, show that’s exactly what Canadians want.

Still, perhaps unwittingly, she uttered the words that have ushered many a political leader to the dustbin of history: “I have full confidence in Justin Trudeau as my leader.”

Expect “full confidence” to be expressed in the most robust terms, with the utmost vigour, and in increasingly strident tones, by Cabinet ministers in the days to come.

The prime minister will demand it. Cabinet ministers will comply. The public will be told. And we will all be none the wiser as to how much support Trudeau has.

Overthrowing leaders is a tricky business. Are the rebels determined enough? Is the leader too willful, too obdurate, too vengeful? What price loyalty? And what of fate?

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In 1981, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, with her polling numbers in the toilet, faced a possible split within the party with a “Gang of 25” Conservatives threatening to vote against her on several issues.

Faithful and, more importantly, forceful ministers were dispatched to bring the rebels – in one-on-one meetings – back in line.

Never underestimate the power of terror, job security and pensions.

Then, only a few months later, Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands, a self-governing British overseas territory. Great Britain went to war, patriotism went with it, and Thatcher cemented her sobriquet as the Iron Lady.

Thatcher stared down her rebels and continued in power for another seven years, until another rebellion by disloyal Conservatives saw her kicked out of office.

But Trudeau is no Thatcher. He has not her virtues, her iron beliefs, or her faith.

When she took office, she famously quoted a prayer from St Francis of Assisi which ended, “And where there is despair, may we bring hope.”

Liberal MPs are despairing of their leader. Canadians have lost faith in their prime minister.

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau is hoping for a miracle.

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