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1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
11. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-8)
14. New England Patriots (3-9)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
When scanning this playoff picture, it’s clear that the races to watch in the AFC are more about quality than quantity. That’s because a handful of spots already feel all but cemented.
The Chiefs, Bills and Texans all enjoy multiple-game leads in their respective division races. There’s also a two-game gap between the final wild-card team, Denver, and the next closest competitor, Miami. Barring any late collapses or wild streaks, it feels fairly certain which seven squads will secure their spot at the playoff table.
As for the order of these postseason participants, though, that’s where things could get interesting.
After the Steelers’ loss to the Browns on Thursday night, it sure looks like the fight for No. 1 will come down to the Chiefs and Bills. Kansas City has a game up on Buffalo, but the Bills hold the tiebreaker after their head-to-head win in Week 11. Kansas City, which needed a walk-off field goal to get past the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, can’t afford any kind of slip-up, or Josh Allen’s club could swipe the top seed and the home-field advantage that comes along with it.
Maybe it’s just as well that the Steelers don’t need to focus on the No. 1 seed, because they have enough to worry about within their division. They’re only a half-game up on the Ravens, and while Pittsburgh has the head-to-head tiebreaker for now, these teams will tussle again—in Baltimore this time—later this month.
Houston has no external worries given its lack of competition in the AFC South, but if the Texans hope to make any noise in the playoffs, they’ll need to figure out whatever has been behind their recent skid (four losses in six games).
The Chargers and Broncos, meanwhile, can abandon hopes of chasing down the Chiefs in the AFC West and instead focus on maintaining their cushions for the final wild-card spots. Those spots feel relatively secure for now, but things could change quickly if the Dolphins can sustain their three-game winning streak.