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In our Week 12 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
There is a fantasy superstar that nobody is talking about. Actually, let me rephrase. There is a football superstar that nobody is talking about.
What if we told you that there was a player who was seventh among all pass catchers in total PPR points this season, despite the fact that three of the six players above him have yet to have their bye week?
What if we told you that this same player was tied for sixth among all pass catchers in total burns, which measures how often a targeted receiver does his part to achieve a successful play (that is, a significant gain towards a first down or touchdown), regardless of the quality of the throw by the quarterback?
Let’s spell it out. The top five pass catchers in total PPR points so far this season are Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson. Their respective ranks in burns are first, sixth, fourth, third and second.
If you were to be asked who the top five wide receivers in football are today, a list with those five players would incite little to no argument. If you were to be asked to come up with a list of the top 10 wide receivers and tight ends, those five players would certainly be on the list. You’d probably also frequently hear names like A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins and maybe a couple tight ends in Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
But would you hear the name Brock Bowers? Or maybe more appropriately, because you wouldn’t likely hear his name, should he be in that conversation more often?
When Kyle Pitts broke 1,000 yards as a rookie, it was with a lot of fanfare as the fourth overall selection in the draft – the highest slot a tight end had ever been taken. But he also did it with only three games of more than 85 receiving yards and eight games with 50 or fewer.
When Sam LaPorta threatened rookie touchdown records last season, it was again with a lot of acclaim – this time because he was playing for a Detroit Lions team that has a claim as the most beloved team among neutral football fans.
In both instances, people were quick to argue that Pitts and then LaPorta were already maybe the best tight ends in football. And maybe with both having hugely disappointing second seasons – Pitts only averaged 7.6 PPR points per game in 2022, LaPorta is currently TE17 – there is more caution with Bowers.
There shouldn’t be. Because the difference between those situations is that the entire Las Vegas Raiders offense has already been built around Bowers, and he’s delivering. To boot, Bowers…
- Has the most receptions through 10 career games by a tight end in NFL history (70).
- Has the second-most receiving yards through 10 career games by a TE in NFL history (706) behind Mike Ditka (869).
- Had 13 receptions in his last game, the most in a game in NFL history by a rookie tight end.
- Became the second rookie TE in NFL history with multiple 10-reception games (Jeremy Shockey, 2002).
Forget just tight ends, Bowers has the second-most receptions through 10 career games by any player in NFL history (70) behind Odell Beckham Jr. (71).
If you remember, that OBJ rookie season instantly granted him membership into the wide receiver’s elite. We should be doing the same with Bowers. Only Kittle is averaging more PPR points per game. Only Malik Nabers (another rookie who is quickly vaulting himself into elite territory), Lamb, Wilson and Chase average more targets per game.
There have only been 15 instances this season where a tight end caught at least nine passes in a single game. Bowers is responsible for four of them. Over the last seven weeks, Bowers is averaging 8.3 receptions and 81.7 receiving yards. No tight end has ever finished a season averaging at least eight receptions and 80 receiving yards, and only two tight ends in NFL history have averaged seven receptions and 70 receiving yards per game over the course of a single season.
When you think of the best tight ends in football, Bowers’ name has to be among the first mentioned. And when you think about the best offensive players in football, he’s staking a claim to be in that conversation as well.
NFL Week 12 Start ’Em
The Yays are our model’s fantasy players projected to overperform expert consensus:
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Sam Darnold, QB (MIN) vs CHI (ECR: 18, Our Rank: QB12, Projected Points: 17.03)
At first glance, you may be thinking, Sam Darnold? Really? Against a Bears defense that has been solid all season? And that might be a fair first judgement. Darnold has five interceptions in his last three games and couldn’t muster a touchdown against the absolutely abysmal Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago, who last week if you recall, surrendered a touchdown to the Lions on each of the first seven drives.
But a deeper dive suggests a different story – because interceptions aren’t hugely punitive in fantasy football. And Darnold sneakily has at least 240 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last five games. Over that span, Darnold is QB9.
As for the Bears, well, they’ve lost four straight dating to that damning Hail Mary they allowed against the Washington Commanders. They also rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per play and yards per pass play allowed. With a bunch of playable quarterbacks on bye, Darnold is a more than serviceable replacement.
David Montgomery, RB (DET) vs IND (ECR: 15, Our Rank: RB9, PP: 15.70)
David Montgomery earlier this year tried suggesting that the nickname for he and Jahmyr Gibbs should be “Sonic and Knuckles.” But for Montgomery in particular, there’s some famous slang that perfectly encapsulates everything that he is, both for the Lions and for all of his fantasy managers: Ol’ Reliable.
He has a touchdown in eight of the Lions 10 games this season. He has a touchdown in 19 of his last 24 games. Since the start of last season, Montgomery has had more than 10 carries in 19 games. In those 19 games, he has a rushing touchdown in 17 of them.
From a fantasy perspective, he only has one game this year with fewer than 12.5 PPR points. He has the second-highest rushing touchdown projection this week. That comes one week after he had the highest rushing TD projection in Week 11.
There might not be a surer bet in the NFL than an anytime touchdown from Montgomery. He’s a top 10 fantasy play for the Lions this week against the Indianapolis Colts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (SEA) vs ARI (ECR: 16, Our Rank: WR3, PP: 17.12)
In Week 9 against an NFC West foe in the Los Angeles Rams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had seven catches for 180 yards. In Week 11 against an NFC West foe in the San Francisco 49ers, Smith-Njigba had 10 catches for 110 yards. In Week 12 against an NFC West foe in the Arizona Cardinals, the industry is treating Smith-Njigba like he’s a middling WR2. Our model, however, is not.
Smith-Njigba leads the Seattle Seahawks in targets, receptions and receiving yards and over the last couple weeks and has really solidified himself as the top option in an offense that, mind you, has the quarterback that leads the NFL in passing yards per game.
Eight wide receivers have at least 85 targets this season. Chase is the only one with a higher open percentage than Smith-Njigba’s 76.7%. In a game that has shootout potential, he is a no-doubt WR1 for our model this week.
NFL Week 12 Sit ’Em
The Nays are our model’s fantasy players projected to underperform expert consensus:
Will Levis, QB (TEN) vs HOU (ECR: 22, Our Rank: QB26, PP: 7.89)
Normally we wouldn’t have our lowest ranked quarterback of the week on the Nay list because chances are, the industry has him low enough that nobody would consider playing him. But this week is a brutal fantasy week in terms of byes. No Josh Allen. No Joe Burrow. No Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins or Trevor Lawrence.
That’s five top 20 quarterbacks on bye. So if you’re in a 12-team SuperFlex league like I am, the available quarterbacks for the week run out quickly. So why is Will Levis a Nay this week? Because his projection is so low that our model thinks it makes more sense to bypass a second quarterback this week in favor of a position player.
Why? The Texans are second in the NFL in yards allowed per play, and fourth in the NFL in both passing yards and total yards allowed per game. And they have eight interceptions in five home games – including five against Jared Goff two weeks ago. Levis is last among all quarterbacks in projected passing yards and has the third-highest interception projection. He’s best left on all benches (or the waiver wire) this week.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB (WSH) vs DAL (ECR: 11, Our Rank: RB21, PP: 11.79)
Like Montgomery, Brian Robinson Jr. has done a solid job of finding the end zone so far this season. He has seven touchdowns in eight games. That’s good!
Unlike Montgomery, his overall solid rushing floor isn’t enough to propel him into a top 10 play like his ECR suggests he should be. Two key differences. First, Montgomery supplements his rushing totals with just a smidge of pass game production. His 20 receptions on the season are 10 more than what Robinson has. In fact, Robinson had more receiving yards in Week 1 (49) than he has accumulated in the rest of the season combined.
The second difference? Robinson struggles after contact, a situation where Montgomery thrives. There are 28 running backs with more than 100 carries this season. He is 21st in yards after contact, averaging 1.73 yards per rush. Montgomery is fourth.
Our models all suggest that Montgomery is a better overall back than Robinson, and our fantasy model is no different. Robinson’s ECR is too high. He’s a low-end RB2 this week, with his only real chance of producing RB1 numbers coming in the form of a multi-touchdown game.
Puka Nacua, WR (LAR) vs PHI (ECR: 4, Our Rank: WR16, PP: 14.30)
When the Rams have the ball, football nerds will be in heaven. This battle between the dynamite duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp against Philadelphia Eagles rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean is most worthy of being the Sunday Night Football showcase.
The Eagles allow the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.07) and are coming off a week in which they held Washington Commanders star wide receiver Terry McLaurin to one catch for 10 yards. This, one week after only allowing 21 receiving yards – on six catches – to CeeDee Lamb.
Nacua, meanwhile, has 16 receptions and 221 receiving yards in his last two games and has been nothing short of outstanding essentially anytime he’s been healthy enough to play. Nacua is likely to see a lot of DeJean, who is one of only six cornerbacks with at least 164 pass coverage reps to have allowed 10 or fewer burns.
The model isn’t expecting Nacua to be shut down completely, but against this elite Eagles secondary, Puka only slots in as a WR2 this week.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky and X.