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Week 12 of the college football season is behind us, and it was a slate that saw a couple of major results leave an impact on the College Football Playoff rankings. We’ve got another exciting slate on tap this week, featuring a myriad of important games across the country. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 13 schedule with my weekly best bets column. We were an absolutely crushing San Jose State bad beat away from a 4-0 weekend in last week’s column and the last month of the regular season has been kind to me in years past, so let’s hope this momentum finally translates into getting a 4-0 card this week!
We have a massive game in the Big Ten to headline this week’s crop of college football best bets, along with a couple of other important contests that I see value on. Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for Week 13 on Saturday.
Ohio State Buckeyes -10 over Indiana Hoosiers (-105)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to 11.
The biggest game on this weekend’s slate takes us to Big Ten country, where the Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers in an extremely consequential game for both conference title and College Football Playoff positioning. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in the sport this season, and Curt Cignetti’s team is on the precipice of an undefeated campaign after being picked to finish in the bottom 5 of the conference standings in the preseason media polls. The job that Cignetti has done can’t be understated and Indiana looks to be playoff-bound in a remarkable program turnaround. However, I do think this incredible story comes to a bit of a halt in Columbus on Saturday, at least for the time being.
Indiana’s offense has been a machine all season long (1st in success rate, 2nd in EPA per dropback, 3rd in Early Downs EPA), but this will be the best defense that the Hoosiers have faced to this point. We just saw quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers’ passing offense struggle against Michigan, and with respect to the Wolverines, that unit pales in comparison to what they’ll see on Saturday. Ohio State’s defense is one of the most talented and experienced groups in the country, and the metrics certainly speak for themselves, as the Buckeyes are 4th in defensive success rate, 2nd in EPA margin and 1st in points per drive. This unit has continued to improve since the loss to Oregon 5 weeks ago, particularly when it comes to eliminating explosive plays and tackling in space. If Ohio State can limit the explosiveness of the Indiana passing offense and put the Hoosiers in difficult situations on third down, it could be a long day for Rourke and company. It’s also important to remember that this is a massive step up in class for the former MAC quarterback, who is undoubtedly playing in the biggest game of his career in what will be an extremely hostile environment.
On the other side of the ball, we can expect Chip Kelly to have a balanced game plan and put the ball in the hands of his stars on Saturday, especially since this Hoosiers defense hasn’t faced anything close to an offense like this. Ohio State presents matchup nightmares for any team because of the presence of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside, and even if the passing game isn’t clicking, Will Howard can just turn around and hand the ball off to either Quinshon Judkins or TreVeyon Henderson, and the results should come.
With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine how Ohio State doesn’t score plenty of points in this game. The Buckeyes offense is much too talented and efficient to be limited against an Indiana defense that has been rock solid all year, but clearly isn’t on the same level as the likes of Penn State or Oregon from a talent perspective. Heading into this weekend, top-5 ranked teams have been listed as a double-digit underdog just 14 times over the last 10 seasons, and they are 0-14 straight up and 5-9 against the spread in those contests. Throw in the fact that Ohio State finally isn’t going on the road for one of these marquee games against a top-10 opponent, and we have the ideal game script for a Buckeyes victory by double digits.
Read our full Indiana vs Ohio State prediction
Minnesota Golden Gophers +12.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 11.
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This line was as low as +10 on the look-ahead but jumped out to nearly 2 touchdowns at the open earlier this week. Even though it’s ticked down a bit, I still think we’re getting a few points of value with the underdog in this Big Ten matchup. Over the last few weeks, I’ve repeatedly highlighted that the teams that are inside the top half of the College Football Playoff rankings don’t need to do anything other than win, and the rest will sort itself out. For a team like Penn State, style points don’t matter in its remaining games. And as we just saw with Texas against Arkansas and Oregon against Wisconsin a week ago, winning on the road in November is anything but easy for even the top teams in the sport. Add in the fact that Minnesota has had success historically at home against Penn State — including wins in each of the last 2 meetings in Minneapolis — and there are a ton of signs pointing to this game being the last truly difficult hurdle for James Franklin’s team to clear before the postseason.
The Gophers were a team that I was very happy to back against Maryland and Illinois, and are now a bit undervalued in the market following a disappointing loss at Rutgers. PJ Fleck quietly has a pretty solid offense on his hands (top 40 in success rate, 17th in 3rd/4th down success rate), led by a quarterback in Max Brosmer who has 18 total touchdowns to just 4 interceptions on the season. It’s going to be difficult for the Gophers offense to generate consistent success against a Penn State defense that is one of the better units in the nation. However, Minnesota is coming off a bye and should have a few tricks up its sleeve when it comes to 3rd-down calls and some new wrinkles to keep the Nittany Lions defense on their toes.
As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has been rolling since the loss to Ohio State, as the Nittany Lions continue to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, Minnesota’s defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and a much-maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Gophers are also 22nd in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Therefore, as long as Minnesota can get off the field on 3rd down, I feel pretty good about its chances to put a real scare into the Nittany Lions on Saturday.
Read our full Penn State vs Minnesota prediction
Kansas Jayhawks +3.5 over Colorado Buffaloes (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +3.
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Throughout the second half of the 2023 college football season, I consistently bet on an Arizona team that I believed to be undervalued in the market. The Wildcats had been unlucky in some close, one-possession games earlier in the year and were somewhat overlooked down the stretch, even as they continued to win games and cover spreads over the final 8 weeks of the campaign. I’ve been doing a similar thing with this Kansas team since the Jayhawks knocked off Houston back on October 19. Over the last 4 weeks, Kansas is 3-1 and 4-0 against the number, including massive victories over Iowa State and BYU in consecutive games. This week, the Jayhawks will look to play spoiler once again, as Kansas is set to take on a Colorado team that has surpassed all expectations this season, albeit with one of the easiest in-conference schedules of any team in the Big 12.
With multiple 40+ point outbursts over the past month, there’s a reason to be optimistic about Lance Leipold’s offense heading into Saturday’s contest against the Buffaloes. Jalon Daniels is playing at an elite level during this recent stretch (10 total touchdowns to just 2 interceptions), and there’s reason to be optimistic that this Kansas offense (8th in 3rd down success rate, 17th in success rate, 2nd in points per quality possession) will keep on rolling against a Buffaloes defense that has simply not faced a quarterback and offensive head coach of this caliber all season long. In fact, when Colorado did face a dual-threat quarterback that was in the upper echelon of the Big 12, the Buffaloes surrendered well over 400 yards of offense, including nearly 200 yards on the ground. Given that Kansas has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation thanks to Daniels and running back Devin Neal, this should be a challenging matchup for an improved (but largely untested) Colorado defensive front.
This Colorado team has gotten a ton of hype, and it’s largely been justified given the turnaround from a disappointing 2023 campaign. With that said, this will be one of the tougher matchups of the season for Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes’ passing offense. Kansas’ defense battled some key injuries earlier in the season, but the all-conference cornerback duo of Melo Dotson and Cobee Bryant present a tough matchup for the likes of Travis Hunter and LaJohntay Wester on the outside. The Jayhawks defense has struggled against the run, but Colorado isn’t the team that is going to take advantage of that weakness, as the Buffaloes are 107th in rushing success rate. Despite covering the number against Utah a week ago, we did see Colorado struggle to generate explosive plays downfield against the Utes’ strong secondary, particularly in the first 3 quarters. In fact, if Utah didn’t allow a punt return touchdown and generally had any sort of offense to speak of, that game likely would have ended up being a lot closer. I was all over the Buffaloes in a great spot last week, but I can’t ignore getting over a full field goal at home with the Jayhawks.
Read our full Colorado vs Kansas prediction