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Things have looked pretty positive for the first-year signal callers so far. But who will ultimately be the best of the bunch? We dig into the data to come up with our rankings.
This year’s crop of first-round rookies are putting together solid NFL debuts through the first 11 weeks of the season.
The quartet of Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, New England QB Drake Maye and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix have combined for nearly 8,000 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns with a 68% completion rate. But we’ll have to wait until at least next year to see how the other two first-rounders, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy, look in the league.
The futures of Williams, Daniels, Maye and Nix are anything but set in stone. However, their respective first 10 to 11 games (Daniels and Nix haven’t had a bye week yet) offer a glimpse into what their careers could look like.
Apart from some hiccups here and there, things are looking positive for this group. Daniels, Nix and Williams all average at least 200 passing yards per game, Daniels and Nix have winning records and all four have proven adept at running with the football when necessary.
Williams looked like the clear-cut favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year before the season, but Daniels quickly established himself first as a sizable contender and then as the runaway favorite. The two-man race remained true until Nix became the first NFL rookie to complete at least 80% of his passes for at least 300 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 11.
That performance put Nix squarely on the same level as Daniels, as Nix now leads the group in passing TDs and has more passing yards per game than Williams and Maye. He has, though, tied Maye with six interceptions.
Before we rank these four, it’s important to look at how their rookie campaigns stack up against their peers. It also offers a peek into what could happen if they all continue down their current trajectories.
We looked at all first-round quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in their rookie season since 2016. This means rookies like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts (all drafted after the first round), Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson (who didn’t attempt enough passes as true rookies) weren’t included.
Rather than compare the raw stats, we looked at their rookie completion percentage against their catchable ball rate – meaning how often they completed passes relative to throws that we deem catchable by the receiver. The exercise produced interesting results when you consider the players these four fell around.
Williams found himself closest to fellow former No. 1 pick Bryce Young, who the Carolina Panthers traded up with the Bears to draft in 2023. This is especially troublesome when you consider Williams’ new offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, was also Young’s OC in Carolina and called plays for part of Young’s rookie season. While the Brown-run Bears offense looked better in Week 11, it wasn’t enough to deliver a win.
Nix, meanwhile, reached 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud territory after his historical Week 11 performance. Maye is closest to former Patriots first-rounder Mac Jones, who started his career hot before declining over the past three seasons.
Daniels, as we’ve seen so far this year, remains very far ahead not only of the 2024 pack, but the entire rookie landscape over the past nine seasons.
Again, this graphic is not a guarantee of how a player’s career will pan out. Jared Goff improved dramatically with Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams and then Ben Johnson calling his plays, Josh Allen quickly became a perennial MVP candidate as his career progressed and even Sam Darnold looks like a new quarterback with Kevin O’Connell as his coach.
Meanwhile, Jones and Kenny Pickett are backups elsewhere while Deshaun Watson got hurt and then bottomed out with the Cleveland Browns.
Looking purely at this graphic, it looks as though Daniels is trending toward rarified air for a rookie. He’s completing passes at a top-10 rate with a top-three catchable pass rate among 2024 quarterbacks with at least 100 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways). His 3.19% pickable pass rate ranks 12th, meaning he’s also not throwing bad balls.
The rest are looking solid, including Williams after a quality Week 11 game. But how much of this is on coaching, game-planning and wide receiver play? Are these quarterbacks pushing the ball downfield or just game-managing?
This is where more intensive scrutiny is required.
2024 Rookies Have Been Extremely Risk-Averse
None of these four rookie quarterbacks have really tested the deep secondary this season. They rank between 17th (Nix) and 31st (Maye) in air yards per drop back among quarterbacks with at least 100 adjusted attempts.
Nix also has the third-highest check-down percentage (behind both Steelers quarterbacks), while Maye ranks ninth. Williams (23rd) and Daniels (26th) aren’t always looking for an easy check-down, at least.
This has been helpful in keeping interception numbers low for all four. They rank sixth (Daniels), 10th (Williams), 11th (Nix) and 27th (Maye) in interception percentage. While that’s good for their development, it’s bad for overall assessments.
Peyton Manning famously holds the record for most interceptions by a rookie with 28, and we all know how his career turned out. Eventually, these rookies will need to throw in adverse situations.
One way to check out their riskiness level is to compare air yards to pickable passes. Basically, is a quarterback throwing good downfield passes or ones that could end in turnovers?
As you can see below, most of the 2024 first-rounders are trending toward taking fewer risks than, say, what Jameis Winston and Anthony Richardson have been more known to do this season. If you’re curious how this compares to all the first-round rookies, it’s even closer to the bottom left of the graph.
OK, so we know this group is playing it safe. But what happens when they throw further downfield?
When we look specifically at passes that travel at least 10 air yards, Daniels once again comes out on top among his peers… on the surface, at least.
Daniels’ numbers are a bit misleading compared to the rest of the league.
While his completion percentage ranks second and his catchable ball rate is first among all quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts that travel 10 yards or more in 2024, his 79.3% open target rate is well ahead of the rest of the league. That’s likely a sign of quality play-calling from offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Washington’s pass catchers also rank fifth in matchup win rate this season, whereas Chicago, New England and Denver rank 23rd, 29th and 31st, respectively. Daniels’ well-thrown percentage (66.3) on throws of 10+ air yards ranks 27th among 32 qualified QBs, while Maye ranks seventh (76.5), Nix 28th (62.4) and Williams 29th (60.4). The NFL average is 71.4% for those with 50 attempts.
But the nod still goes to Daniels here, because even though his numbers could be a product of scheme, he’s executing at a high level. That matters in this case considering Nix, Williams and Maye all have a completion rate well below 50%.
Maye is Efficient Across the Board
There hasn’t been a metric that’s given an indication that Daniels isn’t the best of the group yet. And that remains true when we look directly at completion rate in different passing scenarios among his peers.
However, Maye looks relatively effective regardless of the situation.
Maye’s completion percentage when pressured on drop backs and in play action all rank inside the top 10. Daniels looks above average under pressure and on drop backs and quick passes, but well below average in play action.
Williams, meanwhile, is below average or at average under pressure, on drop backs and quick passes but is above average in play action.
Nix is perhaps the most surprising here, as his under-pressure completion rate ranks 36th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks. He also ranks below-average play-action and quick passes.
The Rankings Now and for the Future
If we take everything into account – on-field production, risk-taking and efficiency – Daniels is still at the top of the group.
He’s just simply playing at a higher overall level than his peers, and it’s a big reason why the Commanders are in the driver’s seat for, at worst, a wild-card spot in the NFC playoff race.
The rest of the rankings are a bit more nuanced. Nix has the numbers, but his advanced stats aren’t as good. Maye hasn’t played as much as the other three, but he’s looked solid despite a bad supporting cast. Williams, meanwhile, actually looks like the worst of the group, although coaching could be partially to blame for his disappointing seasons thus far.
So for the purposes of a definitive ranking of the four based on 11 weeks of football, here we go:
1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
He has the numbers, the efficiency and looks the part of a franchise quarterback. Daniels plays in a great scheme with Kingsbury running the offense that ranks fifth in pass success rate. While Daniels’ production slowed over the past few weeks (possibly because he’s still recovering from a rib injury), there isn’t anything to indicate he isn’t as good as advertised. Daniels also ranks second among all 2024 quarterbacks in rushing yards, although he’s shied away from running the ball since his Week 7 rib injury.
2. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
This may come as a bit of a surprise, but Maye is having a very good rookie season. He’s played in four fewer games than Daniels and Nix with 1,000 fewer passing yards, but Maye still has nine touchdowns on the season with almost the same completion rate as Daniels. He’s done all that on an offense that ranks 21st in pass success rate, 30th in run success rate and behind an offensive line that ranks first in pressure-allowed rate. Maye could be even better if these issues are resolved in 2025.
3. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix has turned it on over the past few weeks after a bad opening month to his career. He completed 60.1% of his passes for 660 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions in his first four games. But since then, Nix completed almost 69% of his passes for 230 passing yards per game, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions in seven games. While his advanced stats aren’t as impressive, Nix does what is required of him well enough in Sean Payton’s offense to keep the Broncos in playoff contention.
4. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
There were always going to be high expectations for Williams as the No. 1 overall pick in Chicago. And, through 10 games in 11 weeks, he hasn’t lived up to those lofty hopes despite three great receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze and capable running back D’Andre Swift.
The Bears rank 25th in offensive success rate, 28th in pass success rate while Williams ranks 25th in completion rate, 33rd in well-thrown rate and 35th in catchable ball rate among 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts this season. None of this points to a successful rookie year, and it will take an offensive system overhaul in 2025 to correct these errors.
A lot can change with these rankings, though. Not just over the final seven weeks of the 2024 season, but in each quarterback’s respective careers.
Remember, players like Goff, Allen, Darnold and even Baker Mayfield looked like busts for long stretches of their early years in the NFL. But with time, a change of scenery or a new offensive system (or all three), even quarterbacks who looked like busts at the time can become stars – and vice versa.
At the very least, the 2024 NFL Draft looks to have produced at least four good young quarterbacks who have solid futures.
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