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Australia is being warned an incoming Trump administration stacked with China hawks could foster further tensions in the Indo-Pacific as leaders work to bolster relationships.
Beijing commended Australia for quelling tensions, with President Xi Jinping telling Prime Minister Anthony Albanese despite “twists and turns” in the relationship over the past decade, there had been progress.
“Our relations have realised a turnaround and continues to grow, bringing tangible benefits to our two peoples,” Mr Xi told Mr Albanese in remarks before their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil.
“This is the result of our collective hard work in the same direction and should be maintained with great care.”
There has been “encouraging progress in the stabilisation of our relationship”, Mr Albanese told the president as he welcomed more trade between the two countries.
And there were opportunities to work together on the transition to renewable energy and climate change, he added.
Mr Albanese denied Australia would get involved in a bilateral tariff dispute between the US and China after US president-elect Donald Trump flagged hefty imposts on Chinese imports.
Mr Albanese denied acquiescing to China after state media reported Mr Xi told the prime minister the relationship would develop if there was mutual respect and common ground was sought “while shelving differences”.
Australia would always stand up for its interests, Mr Albanese said.
Human rights, Taiwan, China supplying Russia with weapons for its war in Ukraine, missile testing in the Pacific and the application of a suspended death penalty against an Australian citizen were all raised in the meeting, he said.
“We’ve managed to improve relations without compromising any of Australia’s national interests, which we have continued to pursue and will continue to pursue,” Mr Albanese said in Brazil after the meeting.
A “grand bargain” needed to be struck between the US-led West and China to avoid anarchy, former Australian ambassador to China Geoff Raby, who served as Canberra’s main man in Beijing between 2007 and 2011, said.
“This will require acknowledging the legitimacy of China’s position in the world order, affording it strategic space, whilst seeking ways to hedge against its potential bad behaviour,” he told the National Press Club on Tuesday.
“Distasteful as it may be to some, this will require the US to forswear fostering regime change in China.”
Mr Trump’s incoming cabinet picks included China hawks, which “suggests that geographical competition will intensify … with all the attendant risks and miscalculation and potential for conflict,” Dr Raby said.
Exactly how the incoming Trump administration would interact with Beijing remained to be seen.
“Encouragingly, both Trump and his vice president JD Vance have made clear that they have no appetite for the US’s forever wars of the past half-century,” Dr Raby said.
Global co-ordination against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had also given China pause for thought regarding military actions against Taiwan, Dr Raby said.
“The way the West came together with such powerful sanctions – both trade and financial – would be devastating for China,” he said.
The prime minister will travel to China in 2025 to meet with Premier Li Qiang for the annual leaders dialogue. He expects to have talks with Mr Xi as well.
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