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Chelsea have been gifted the easiest festive fixture list according to stats boffins – but Everton and Sean Dyche are on the naughty step with the hardest.
Enzo Maresca‘s Blues face none of the current top six over their next 10 games, while the Toffees play five of them consecutively in a cruel December gauntlet which would make Santa Claus weep.
Their only comfort is that fellow strugglers Leicester have been dealt the second-harshest hand, facing four of the top six as they fight the wintry storm.
The brainiacs at Opta have assembled a fixture difficulty table for the next 10 games, grading the toughness of each side’s respective fixtures and adding up the total scores.
Ruben Amorim has a slightly toilsome start at Manchester United with the ninth-hardest fixture run, while Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal all have favourable calendars.
Everton have been handed the hardest festive fixture list of any Premier League team – and face five top-six sides in a gruelling December sequence
Chelsea have the most forgiving yuletide run according to Opta – and play none of the top six
Opta graded the toughness of each side’s fixtures and added them together to make this table
Chelsea’s ‘average opponent rating’ of 87 is the league’s most forgiving, while Brighton on 87.7 and Wolves on 88.1 get the next-best pickings under the tree.
Everton’s doomed run is rated at 92, with fellow stragglers Leicester on 91.4 alongside Tottenham – just when the pressure is mounting on Ange Postecoglou.
Manchester United’s schedule is not so alarming but they face the three sternest assignments possible – away trips to Arsenal, Man City, and Liverpool – to earn a fixture difficult rating of 90.1.
If the wheels have come off Arsenal’s title challenge, this is the stint to fix them back on. Their yuletide race has been ranked the fourth easiest, with tasty home ties against Ipswich and Everton and a chance to spoil Tottenham’s New Year at the Emirates on January 15.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool have the eighth-easiest schedule, with a home clash with Manchester City and away day at Nottingham Forest being their only top-six tests, while they’ll get another bite at United and West Ham after early-season maulings.
Pep Guardiola is in need of some Christmas pardon but the ninth-easiest run isn’t much to boast about following four consecutive defeats for Manchester City. Away days at Liverpool and Aston Villa don’t promise to be easy while they also host United and Tottenham.
Nottingham Forest have been one of the season’s great revelations, currently perched fifth in the standings – but they could go down like ninepins these next two months.
They roadtrip to Arsenal, City, and United in their next four fixtures – along with what they hope is a feast at home to Ipswich – while also welcoming Villa, Spurs, and Liverpool.
Ruben Amorim faces a moderately difficult start at Man United with the ninth-hardest rota
Leicester’s schedule is the second-most difficult as they play against four of the top six
Arsenal’s only encounter with a fellow top-six side is at home to Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s credentials for Europe will be tested by one of the trickest festive runs
The stockings aren’t so generous for the newly promoted clubs. Leicester (second-hardest), Southampton (fifth) and Ipswich (eighth) all face three top-six clubs – and don’t play against each other.
But the most chilling rota is Everton’s. A home clash with Wolves could be pivotal, but the only other bottom-half sides they’re facing are Brentford, Manchester United, and Bournemouth.
Between December 7 and 29 they play Liverpool (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (h), Manchester City (a), and Nottingham Forest (h).
If they traverse that period reasonably well, they’ll set themselves on course for survival in games where you’d expect others to falter. But it could be a fatal run.