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Since it was inaugurated in May, the administration of the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te has gotten off to a relatively solid start. The administration enjoys a high approval rating, and neither of the two main opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) nor the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) are performing well in the Legislative Yuan, something that had been a concern. Additionally, the TPP’s approval rating has been plummeting as a result of the TPP’s Ko Wen-je arrest and imprisonment. Forty percent of voters in Taiwan were originally non-party affiliated, but from 2023 and into the start of 2024, a large number of these independents joined the TPP, leading to an approval rating of 20 percent for the TPP. However, this approval rating has since dropped dramatically. In the Legislative Yuan, the KMT became the largest party but fell short of a majority, suggesting that the third-largest party, the TPP, might hold a deciding vote. However, coordination between legislators and Ko Wen-je have not been successful, and the situation further worsened with Ko Wen-je’s eventual arrest.
While showing some consideration for China in his May 20 presidential inaugural address, Lai stated that “The Republic of China has already put down roots in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. And the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.” He added, “Some call this land the Republic of China, some call it the Republic of China Taiwan, and some, Taiwan; but whichever of these names we ourselves or our international friends choose to call our nation, we will resonate and shine all the same.”
The name “Republic of China on Taiwan” was used by Lee Teng-hui and the “Republic of China Taiwan” was used by Tsai Ing-wen, but Lai uses the “Republic of China,” the “Republic of China Taiwan,” and “Taiwan” without distinction, and has combined the terms into a single category. Certainly, Lai is a supporter of Taiwanese independence. During his presidential inaugural address, he did not even mention the time when the Republic of China (ROC) was based on the Chinese mainland when speaking about history, and he hardly mentioned Kinmen and Matsu. Instead, he mostly used the term “Taiwan” during the presidential inaugural address rather than the “Republic of China” or the “Republic of China Taiwan.”
Though Lai has placed the Republic of China, the Republic of China Taiwan, and Taiwan into a single category, he has effectively created flexibility to frequently use the term “Republic of China” without issue. On August 23, Lai visited Kinmen Island and participated in a ceremony commemorating the August 23 Artillery Battle. In his speech, he stated, “We will protect Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu and must resolve to protect the Republic of China. On October 5, at the State Banquets for National Day (an evening party to celebrate the founding of the nation), Lai commented, “Recently, our neighbor, the People’s Republic of China, just celebrated its 75th birthday on October 1. In a few days, the Republic of China will celebrate its 113th birthday.” The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was formed on October 1, 1949, and the ROC on January 1, 1912, but the ROC celebrates National Day on October 10, 1911, in commemoration of the Xinhai Revolution. Lai continued. “Therefore, in terms of age, it is absolutely impossible for the People’s Republic of China to become the motherland of the people of the Republic of China. On the contrary, the Republic of China may actually be the motherland of citizens of the People’s Republic of China who are over 75 years old.” Until 1949, the ROC was based on the Chinese mainland, meaning that people in China today who are 75 or older were once citizens under the ROC. This means that for these people, a country under the leadership of the ROC could be their motherland. Later, he stated, “Since the Republic of China has already laid its roots in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu for the last 75 years, there’s no need to revisit this topic. However, if anyone chooses to celebrate the anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, they must be precise with the language of celebration and must never use the term, ‘motherland’.” He emphasized here that the PRC cannot be the motherland for the people of Taiwan.
Though he did not say it outright, surely Lai is implying that the ROC is the motherland of people in Taiwan. However, it also appears that he is limiting the meaning of the ROC to the 75 years it has been in Taiwan. As was the case in his presidential inaugural address, he didn’t often mention the ROC before 1949. On National Day on October 10, he said, “One hundred and thirteen years ago, a group of people full of ideals and aspirations rose in revolt and overthrew the imperial regime. Their dream was to establish a democratic republic of the people, to be governed by the people and for the people.” However, Lai didn’t mention Sun Wen’s name. He also spoke about the Battle of Guningtou in 1945 and the August 23 Artillery Battle (Second Taiwan Strait Crisis) in 1958, asserting, “Though we arrived on this land at different times and belonged to different communities, we defended Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. We defended the Republic of China.” This could be taken as an attempt to overcome the social divisions within Taiwan to create a new “ROC = Taiwan” identity.
Lai’s “motherland theory” may be directed more at a domestic Taiwanese audience than at China. Currently, only about 5 percent of the Taiwanese population supports reunification with China. Lai’s message that the identity of the Taiwanese people won’t change irrespective of what the country is called will surely resonate well. The “motherland theory” has rocked the KMT, which is unsure how to counter it. The assertion that the ROC is, to the extent possible, confined to the period after 1949, that the ROC and Taiwan are synonymous, and that the PRC in China cannot be the motherland of the Taiwanese people can be seen as an effort to unify the Taiwanese identity under a single concept. Lai initiated this debate just as the TPP’s approval ratings were declining sharply. Given that he only won 40 percent of the vote in the general election, it seems that he is trying to draw support from a majority of Taiwanese society to restore a clear political advantage.
KAWASHIMA Shin is a professor at the University of Tokyo.