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The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surprisingly won all four seats in the 2024 Bihar bypolls, snatching a few decades-old bastions of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
It was a complex election due to the demography and diversity of the candidates and alliances involved. Some intra-alliance tussles also played out. These could have a bearing on the 2025 assembly election in Bihar.
Here’s what stood out:
Prashant Kishor, Jan Suraaj Mean Business
Despite losing, the biggest winner of this bypoll is Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). Launched less than a month ago, it was able to secure the third position in three seats, namely Belaganj, Imamganj, and Tarari.
In Tarari, Kiran Singh, who had to be fielded late, secured 5,622 votes, while in Ramgarh, candidate Sushil Kumar Singh won the fourth spot with 6,513 votes. In Belaganj, Mohammad Amjad secured 17,285 votes, a significant portion of which came from beyond the Muslim community.
Kishor had vowed not to field a Muslim candidate if the RJD did so. By fielding Amjad, it effectively told Muslims that the RJD does not care about Muslim representation and only treats them as a vote bank.
Surendra Yadav, a strongman and father of losing RJD candidate Vishwanath Kumar Singh, blamed JSP for his son’s loss. The Belaganj seat was seen almost like a reserved seat for Yadav and his family.
Of all the four candidates JSP fielded, Jitendra Paswan in Imamganj returned with the highest tally of 37,103 votes.
Poll strategists believe that the majority of JSP voters were NDA voters until the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Kishor believes that a 9.5 per cent share in total votes is a healthy start in the light of two facts: One, the party’s symbol was allotted less than two weeks before the election; two, Kishor’s yatra did not pass through this place.
As a result, JSP’s cadre management and organisation are being appreciated. Not to forget, the party also had to change an acclaimed Tarari candidate at the eleventh hour.
M-Y Slide Confirmed
After the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, it was thought that Tejashwi Yadav’s ignorance of old loyalties would lead to a decline in RJD’s old Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) voter base. RJD’s insistence on promoting members of Lalu Yadav’s family over anyone else is largely responsible for this narrative.
In the wake of the intense Purnia election involving Pappu Yadav, RJD (Tejashwi Yadav) asked people to vote for NDA but not Pappu Yadav. Yadavs and Muslims did not like that and, therefore, did not vote for RJD candidate Bima Bharti.
When Bharti again contested in the Rupauli bypolls, Pappu asked the M-Y bloc to support her. But his appeal went unheard, and both communities went with Shankar Singh and the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) candidate.
This was seen in Ramgarh too, where Ajit Kumar Singh, son of the party president Jagada Nand Singh, finished third, with clear signs of erosion in the party’s support base among Muslims, Scheduled Castes, and Rajputs.
In Belaganj, Muslim votes were split between JSP’s Amjad and AIMIM’s Zamin Ali Hassan. Yadav voters sided mainly with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Manorama Devi, leading to a defeat by over 21,000 votes for RJD’s Vishwanath Singh.
Likewise, in Imamganj, JSP’s Jitendra Paswan is believed to have split RJD’s voter base, allowing Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)) to scrape a win.
While Lalu’s proclivity for his family irked Yadavs, the falling representation of Muslims in the party is snowballing into a decline in relevance for the party. Viral videos of Kishor criticising RJD on both these points have left a dent too.
Chirag Factor in NDA
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, Chirag Paswan emerged as a disruptive force for Nitish Kumar and, by extension, the NDA. By breaking away and fielding candidates against JD(U), Paswan’s actions split the alliance’s vote base, dealing a significant blow to JD(U)’s performance. This not only reduced Kumar’s party to a junior partner within the NDA but also created new challenges for the BJP in managing the coalition’s internal dynamics.
If the bypolls are anything to go by, Paswan may do the same in 2025. He was expected to lead the coalition’s prospects in the Imamganj assembly constituency. JSP candidate Jitendra Paswan, who is from the same community as Chirag Paswan, got more than 37,000 votes. This was because (Chirag) Paswan and his party did not turn up for the election.
Local political analysts are speculating that this could signal something bigger in the longer run since Paswan is said to have silently supported the JSP candidate. Additionally, Kishor and Paswan have refused to criticise each other’s politics and approaches on multiple occasions.
NDA leaders are irked by Paswan’s behaviour.
Anand Mohan, a strongman and husband of Sheohar parliamentarian Lovely Anand, has questioned Paswan’s commitment to the coalition. His son Chetan Anand, a member of the legislative assembly from Sheohar assembly constituency, also came down heavily on Paswan and said that in a coalition, picking and choosing do not work.
Paswan has been a cause of disagreements within the coalition for quite a while now. Each time the party has been able to mellow it down, which indicates that Paswan may demand an increase in his share in the 2025 election, causing further problems within the coalition.
Nitish Kumar and the Muslim Vote
After his electoral flip before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Kumar was said to have lost traction among Muslim voters. But booth-level data revealed by Kishor tells a different story.
There were many Muslim-majority booths in Belaganj where Manorama Devi, JD(U)’s candidate, had the upper hand. Kumar himself coming to campaign played a crucial role in the success. It shows that Muslims will trust Kumar if he properly reaches out to them.